Rafa Benitez Data Analysis 2022/2023 – Using Data To Identify His Next Club

Words may be superfluous at this very moment for a name like Rafael Benítez.

Still, his recent experiences may have eliminated from the popular retina what the 62-year-old Spaniard means in the world of football.

His career has been vast, important, and mythical; full of trophies, long-term projects, tactical variety, and top players whom he was able to coach within his own vision as a manager.

Among the many clubs we manage, we can say that Valencia and Liverpool have been two of the highlights.

With those respective clubs, he coached more than 500 games, winning the league twice with the Spanish team, one UEFA Europa League, and the fantastic UEFA Champions League with Liverpool, which seemed to have been written in the stars.

Much is due to what he, as a coach, built—an understanding of the context of football at that time.

Recently, we can say that his stay in Naples is among his top experiences, while his time at Real Madrid was one to forget, marked by discouraged players with little patience for his project.

Beyond this, his arrival at Newcastle and four seasons in command of the English team between 2015 and 2019 should be greatly remembered as some of his best.

Many may have thought that Rafa would not return to work after his time at Everton, but everything indicates that he will soon, as he himself said he has received up to 15 offers.

That is why today, we will treat this as the door to the path of this article, in which we ask ourselves: What could be the next team for Rafa Benítez?

We will use data analysis to identify the club that could be the best fit for the Spaniard, utilizing statistical data.

Selected countries

To carry out this analysis, we have chosen three countries.

Among those selected, we will have Spain.

After almost nine years, Benítez has not returned to coaching in his native country.

In the past, he has commented that it is very difficult due to the rivalry with the clubs he has managed; however, taking into account that he joined Everton last season, this can take a turn.

We will take into account teams that have a more reactive approach to the game, low possession, and are underperforming in terms of scoring goals — something that Benítez has shown to improve in many teams, specifically in the Newcastle side.

England, because it is the country that he knows best.

He lives there and has led four teams over the years in various contexts, achieving notable success with two of them.

However, as he has managed teams like Newcastle, Everton, Chelsea, and Liverpool, we’re going to take a look at a deep challenge for Rafa to take next.

Finally, we believe that a return to Italy would also be positive for him.

After his time in Naples, clubs may be interested in adding a coach with his extensive experience in football.

It is not a country in which he has done as well as in Spain or England, so that can be part of a challenge for him.

England

Taking into account what is happening at the moment in the Premier League, in which many coaches are settled with long-term projects or, in the case of others, have recently established themselves in their new clubs, there are a couple of teams in which the Spaniard fits well. 

It must also be taken into account that this competition would be one of the few that could offer him the money he has earned in recent years.

Italy or Spain may not bear as attractive offers, but this is all hypothetical.

Leicester City

Things are not going well for Brendan Rodgers.

The solid project that once was, and nearly returned to the Champions League, has vanished.

He is currently fighting not to be relegated with a squad that’s certainly capable of more than that.

Things couldn’t be much worse for the 2015-16 season champions.

Despite the fact that achieving the league title does not seem realistic in the coming years, Benítez could have an excellent project on his hands, with the possibility of large investment after his arrival and a team that already features players of high quality, especially if he manages to retain James Maddison as the lynchpin of the team to be built around.

Leicester City this season have been a very weak team.

They have needed goals and to be much more defensively solid.

The structure has been compromised, and an experienced professional like Benítez could rectify it.

It has not provided the necessary solidity within what has been a passive block, which registered 12.32 in PPDA.

The data shows that, at the time of writing, the Foxes have conceded 39.75 xGA and 47 actual goals so far this season.

This means that they have scored more goals than they should have on the pitch.

The first indication is that of an impoverished team at the back, which was one of their highest points each prior season, precisely because of how coordinated their central area was.

By now, Leicester have scored 37 goals from almost 30 xG.

This means that they have overperformed their xG, but it also indicates that it is one of the lowest xG totals in the league.

They create a few high-probability goal situations and tailor them to the individualities of players.

This can be demonstrated by the fact that Harvey Barnes and James Maddison were responsible for 17 goals between them in the competition, accounting for 45% of those scored by their team.

It is clear that many aspects of the squad will need improvement if Benítez joins the team. However, players like James Maddison, Kieran Dewsbury-Hall, Youri Tielemans, and Harvey Barnes must be retained if the team aims to put together a new project that seeks to compete for European positions.

Reinforcements with a more defensive profile in the middle and back four would be necessary, as would a more Benítez-esque striker.

Leeds United

As the media pointed out when Javi Gracia was signed, his contract is ‘flexible’, so Leeds United does not have a coach who will oversee a long-term project.

The fanbase is not pleased with the appointment and the recent developments there.

One of the most aggressive and fastest teams in the league, but also weak and with goalscoring problems — Rafa Benítez can take this as a great challenge to correct.

During his time in the Premier League after promotion with Marcelo Bielsa, Leeds have continued to be a team that needs to adapt to something more reactive in certain situations.

Leeds United’s style has been fairly straightforward over the years, plus extremely intense defending under both Bielsa and Jesse Marsch, but that may change with Gracia in charge.

It would be more than a good idea to seek to change certain things in the style that allow the team to live calmly in the Premier League as Newcastle once did under the Spanish coach.

However, their scoring quota has dropped, having been one of the top 10 in the last two years.

Now, they are among the five teams that generate and score the fewest goals, with 35 goals within almost 35 expected goals (xG).

Those are not good numbers considering the moment the other teams are experiencing in the campaign.

Players like Tyler Adams, Marc Roca, and Weston McKennie possess the skills and defensive intensity required for a Benítez system, which often involves nullifying central zones with a large midfield.

Wingers like Wilfried Gnonto or Jack Harrison, who break spaces on the outside, are even more suitable for creating chances.

With a lot to build on but also areas to invest in, a return to the Premier League seems more likely in this pair of contexts, which contain both positive and negative aspects that Benítez can capitalize on for a new adventure in England.

Italy

His past with Napoli and Inter dictated that he could not coach teams like Milan, Juventus, or even Roma, while adhering to his motto of not coaching rival teams.

However, the data has shown us a more than interesting context in which Rafael Benítez could lead his next team and return to Italy after more than 9 years.

In the data visualization below, we compare the Serie A teams by their Expected Goals and Goals Scored.

A name that stands out greatly is that of Fiorentina—the only team that we see as capable of aligning with the ideas, salary, and historical environment for the Spanish coach.

At the time of writing, Fiorentina has been creating numerous chances, boasting a high xG of over 45.

However, they have scored just 32 goals.

Compared to the number of chances they’ve created, it has been one of the poorest.

Vincenzo Italiano has not done a bad job with Fiorentina, despite the fact that it has been an irregular year in the team’s search for more possession-based football, which boasts a more than interesting squad.

The defensive statistics at the moment are extremely poor, and given their limited scoring, competing has become very difficult, especially considering the current level of Napoli.

That’s why Rafa Benítez appears as a possible coach who fits Serie A and Fiorentina.

After winning the Italian Cup and Super Cup with Napoli, a possible return with “Viola” could excite many.

Players like Sofyan Amrabat, Giacomo Bonaventura, Igor, and Luka Jović are more than interesting names to consider for a project under Benítez.

If Italiano’s departure becomes a reality at the end of the season, it would open the door for an interesting and hypothetical challenge for the Spaniard, with a team that seeks to compete seriously in one of the fastest-growing leagues in the world.

With the recent signing of Dodô — for more than 14 million euros — it is likely that an investment in the next market will be made with good returns.

Spain 

They say ‘there is no place like home’ and this can be taken very literally with the team that we believe can fit Rafa Benítez.

His career took a significant turn when, in 2001, he joined the ranks of Valencia.

The club is experiencing one of the worst moments in its history.

They are battling relegation, and an economic crisis has prevented them from retaining great players and coaches or investing in the squad year after year.

Regarding the statistical issue, it is fateful what Gennaro Gattuso, who coached the team for half a season, is experiencing right now.

Defensively, the 31 goals conceded in 35 xGA have not meant the worst numbers in this phase for them.

However, this has been happening regularly in recent years.

The worst of the numbers becomes apparent when we examine the offensive side of things.

They have registered 35.85 xG so far, scoring 28 goals — a significant difference that is the reason why they are positioned so low in the table.

The players live in an extremely low state of mind, and passivity has become almost a constant feature in the club’s matches.

Not because of the desire shown by players, because many inside feel the club to the fullest, as their captain José Gauá does, but because of the results and the atmosphere that exists.

Normally, teams in this context aim to counter this by appointing people close to home.

And Rafa is one of them.

In fact, after Gattuso’s departure, Voro, an old acquaintance at the club, took over for 15 days, a situation that has already occurred several times in recent years.

Rúben Baraja is struggling to keep them up in the top flight.

A man of Rafa’s experience and reputation at Valencia would greatly contribute to the possible and long-awaited growth of their fan base.

Players like José Gayá, Samuel Lino, Hugo Guillamón, or Carlos Soler are not names that go unnoticed in La Liga, who could also fit very well within Rafa’s ideas.

Valencia could take advantage of the tactical order and the particular offensive approach, whether in this same campaign or in the next.

He has already demonstrated that he can lead in lower divisions if the job requires it.

Conclusion

Even though a man of his experience and quality of work has commented that he has more than 15 offers, which is normal, we took four that we see as capable of offering an environment more fitting for him, where he has shown that he can live calmly and comfortably — in addition to thinking about what he’s worth and who could pay or offer something interesting for him. 

However, the data search helped us understand which teams are currently making mistakes that Rafa could address and improve.

If the world wants to surprise us with his next destination, it will go ahead.

In the end, what we write does not necessarily mean that it will happen; it is intended to entertain the reader and prompt them to question, just as the writer in this article, who is searching for football teams for one of the greatest legends in the managerial world.