Soccer analysis requires an analytical mindset and a keen sense of nuance. It can be highly effective when you know what you’re doing, but there’s a fair bit of legwork involved in building the fundamental and experiential knowledge you need for success.
Keeping an eye on sources of information is a good start, such as the best online sportsbook or a reliable stat-tracker, for example. However, if you want to gain an edge over the competition, follow the five steps we’ve outlined below, and your ability to analyze the beautiful game will be all the better for it.
Step 1: Performing research
First and foremost, you need a fundamental knowledge base. This will depend on the scope of your analysis. The question you need to ask yourself is; are you looking at one or two players, a single team, or an entire league?
Studying a handful of players is a lot easier than becoming familiar with every player in every league. But the smaller in scope your research is, the more you miss out on the bigger picture. Teams can affect each other in myriad ways, so it’s in your best interests to observe any and all relevant interactions.
The best thing you can do is find a balance between capability and limitation. In other words, focus on the team statistics and player performance figures that are most relevant for accurate analysis, such as positional checks, core efficiency, and squad composition.
Step 2: Preliminary analysis
As you gain an understanding of team dynamics and top players, you will begin to notice underlying trends and baseline performances. This insight allows you to perform basic analysis, and you should be able to determine which teams are strong and which are struggling at this point.
Most ‘casual’ analysts end their pursuit of knowledge at this point, but statistical knowledge is only one aspect of a thorough investigation. There are several other essential factors to consider, like injuries or disciplinary issues, for instance.
The roles of the manager and other coaching staff should also be considered. They hold considerable influence over the direction of any team, and changes on an authoritative level have the potential to affect team performance and player morale significantly.
Step 3: External factor analysis
Now that the primary research objectives are out of the way, it’s time to look at the external factors that influence performance. Club unity, fan commitment, and controversies are but a few examples of the areas you should look into, and even the weather can be a deciding factor.
In order to become a proficient analyst, you have to be as informed as possible. Anything and everything that could affect your analysis should be taken into consideration. That being said, you must also know how to curate your body of knowledge.
Discard info that isn’t contextually relevant as you go, and adapt your analysis whenever an external factor comes into play. After performing this step, you should have enough data to extrapolate with a reliable degree of accuracy.
Step 4: Extrapolation
Being able to interpret data is the main objective of analysis. Seeing as you will need objectivity and subjectivity in equal measure to form an educated opinion, both quantitative and qualitative methods are helpful.
How fans feel about a new manager can be just as important as core player performance. Ultimately, you have to determine which facts matter the most on any given day, which is a decision-making skill that takes time and effort to perfect.
Don’t be afraid to learn from your mistakes. Your ability to predict the likeliest outcome will improve with each successive decision, but you have to be patient and willing to keep trying when you fail.
Step 5: Real-time monitoring
The highest level of analysis you can achieve is real-time analysis. A real-time analyst watches soccer not only for entertainment but also for study purposes, as it provides a level of reactivity that can’t be achieved with research alone.
Because live matches provide the opportunity to make adaptive decisions, you can alter your analysis on-the-fly and adapt to unforeseen events immediately. When you combine that ability with all the steps we’ve mentioned above, you get the most accurate frame of reference possible.
Keep in mind that, no matter how much you study, there are no guarantees when it comes to the outcome of a soccer match. Your main objective is to develop an accurate gauge, a mindset that will allow you to understand the nature of the game and make informed decisions.
