Euro 2020 preview: Where the final can be won and lost for Italy and England – tactical analysis

On Sunday evening at Wembley Stadium, England will take on Italy in the final of Euro 2020. Italy successfully navigated their way through a difficult knockout stage, beating Austria, Belgium and Spain, all after topping a group made up of Wales, Switzerland, and Turkey. Italy had managed to outscore every opponent in the tournament until their 1-1 draw with Spain in the semi-final, which was settled from 12 yards out. This game represented their second game of the competition which went to extra time, after their Round of 16 win over Austria.

England topped a group which included Croatia, Czech Republic and Scotland, drawing against the latter. In the knockout stages, the English beat Germany, Ukraine, and squeezed past Denmark in extra time in their own semi-final. This tactical analysis looks to give a preview of some of the tactics we may see used in Sunday’s fixture, giving an analysis on one or two aspects from each side.

Lineups and formation

It’s unlikely we’ll see either side make any kind of shift from the way they lined up in the semi-final. Neither side is expected to have any players who started in the semi-finals unavailable, whether due to suspension or injury. 

As a result we will see both sides field a version of a 4-3-3. The key difference will be England using a double pivot, with Declan Rice and Kalvin Phillips sitting behind Chelsea’s Mason Mount. Opposing this, Italy will likely use a single pivot, with Jorginho fulfilling that role. Nicolo Barella of Inter Milan, and Paris Saint-Germain’s Marco Verratti sitting in front. Both sides will also likely employ a slightly lopsided formation with their left-backs pushing forward. The impact of both of these players pushing forward will be examined in more detail later on, but both Luke Shaw and Emerson Palmieri will take very high positions in attack, whilst Kyle Walker and Giovanni Di Lorenzo, both of whom will likely fulfil the right-back role, are likely to play in a slightly narrower and more reserved role.

Shaw and Sterling

It remains to be seen whether Gareth Southgate pursues with playing Sterling on the left and Saka on the right, but if he does, Shaw and Sterling are likely to represent England’s most consistent threat on the Italian goal on Sunday.

Against Denmark in the semi-final, 21 of Englands 41 positional attacks emerged from the left flank. And whilst a greater level of xG chances arose from their central attacks, we can clearly see from looking at the image below that they preferred to use the left side to structure the majority of attacks.