Premier League 2018/19 Tactical Analysis: Watford’s decrease of goals-per-xG

Watford took just four points from their last six Premier League games of this season. In addition, the team of Spaniard Javi Garcia only managed to score six goals. Because of these poor performances in the last games of the season, they got knocked out of the top ten and finished in 11th place.

However, besides the fact that they scored just six goals, their goals-per-xG value was also noticeably low. This tactical analysis will show the reasons for that development.

The stats

Between the game against Leicester City on 1 December 2018 and the match against Fulham on 2 March 2019, the goals-per-xG of the Hornets was 1.195. In this period the striker and captain of the team Troy Deeney played 88.0% of the available minutes. On the other hand, the second English striker in the squad Andre Gray played just 18.1% of the available minutes.

In the last six games, their goals-per-xG decreased to 0.405. Deeney missed three out of these six games because of a red card which he received on 15 March against Arsenal. Considering this, he played just 34.1% of the time while Gray was 70.4% of the time on the pitch.

In light of this, there is an obvious relation between the two strikers and the goals-per-xG value of Watford and furthermore their scored goals. However, when it comes to goals and xG they have similar stats in this season. While Deeney scores 0.37 times per 90 minutes, Gray has got a value of 0.43. Besides that, between their xG values are also no huge differences (0.41 and 0.31 per game).

Andre Gray

The 27-year-old Englishman isnt a traditional striker. With 0.24 assists per game, he has way more than Deeney who has just got 0.08. You can also watch this in his style of play. He tries to use his powerful body to keep the ball away from the defender and then tries to find a teammate. His assist before the 4-1 against Fulham is a perfect example. He uses his body to shield the ball and then finds Kiko Femenía with a perfect pass. The Spaniard just needs to place the ball next to the goalkeeper.

Before the 3-1 against Fulham, he played a perfect pass to his strike partner Deeney who then scores. Other strikers would have kept their head down and would have taken a shot. But Gray has always got his head up to find a better-positioned teammate.

Considering this, Gray is not a striker who just waits in front of the goal to get the ball and then try to score. He wants to receive the ball in front of the last line of the opposing defence and then either lay the ball off or play a through ball.