Germany will be heading into the World Cup with the aim of avenging their disastrous campaign in 2018 when they went crashing out of the tournament in the group stages. Germany came bottom of their group, finishing behind Sweden, Mexico and South Korea with a squad and manager who were both coming to the end of their cycle. This time around, they’ve replaced the ageing players and have included a new set of dynamic attacking players.
On their journey to the World Cup, Germany were given a fairly easy group, where they won nine out of 10 games, scoring 36 goals and only allowing four on the route to the World Cup. However, their toughest opponent, 65th-ranked North Macedonia, shows that this is irrelevant when compared to the level they will face in Qatar.
In this upcoming competition, they have been drawn into a group with Japan, Costa Rica and Spain. Germany are currently sat in 11th place in the FIFA rankings, while Spain may be seen as favourites in the group, currently sat in seventh place. 24th-placed Japan and 31st-placed Costa Rica will be seen as outsiders, and while they do not possess the quality of the two European sides, Germany may face difficult challenges in overcoming the two lower-ranked nations.
After the most recent UEFA European Championships, Germany replaced their head coach, Joachim Löw. This much needed change in leadership will hopefully allow the Germans to continue the success that some of the more recent German coaches have had at club level. The German philosophy has seen 3 of the last 4 Champions League trophies be lifted by German managers, proving that their breeding ground has been very effective in recent history.
The new head coach, Hansi Flick took charge of the German national team after their defeat to England at Euro 2021. Flick came to international management off the back off of a record-breaking two seasons with Bayern Munich. Soon after taking charge, Flick went 30 games undefeated in all competitions, in a season where he won the Bundesliga, Champions League and DFB Pokal. His aggressive and attacking style of play helped Bayern to score 159 goals in all competitions, with 52 of those scored by players in the German national team.
This tactical analysis will break down what to expect from Germany under Hansi Flick’s leadership tactics wise. A scout report will detail the key players for Germany, and how they can cause chaos in Qatar. Furthermore, there will be an analysis of the squad as a whole, and how each player can help play a part in the German’s potential road to the trophy.
Predicted Starting XI
In Flick’s 15 games in charge, he has mainly used the 4-2-3-1 that he famously used during his successful Bayern Munich stint. On occasion, Flick altered the tactics, to move to a back five, at the expense of a creative player further up the pitch. This formation could be seen during the tougher fixtures, against nations that possess more threat or to match up against sides who use a three at the back. However, we do not expect this to be seen in the group stages. As was the case at Bayern, we can expect a gegenpressing side, with a heavy focus on creating chances through pressing and transitional situations, although Flick can definitely create chances against a deep block.
Manuel Neuer will lead his country out on the pitch in goal, as the 36-year-old will look to win his second World Cup. His ability to sweep will enable Germany to play with a high line, making their block more compact and difficult to play through. Neuer’s ballplaying ability will also be important in aiding the build-up for Germany to allow them to retain possession of the ball.
In the German back line, Niklas Süle and Antonio Rüdiger are likely to form the defensive duo. The pair are both comfortable in possession, strong in aerial duels and have a nice balance, with Rüdiger as the aggressor while Süle will hold his position to cover balls in behind. The pair are also both skilled at carrying the ball up the pitch, in case they run out of options, they can simply evade pressure and find a teammate further up the pitch.
In the full-back positions, there is a possibility that a more defensive player replaces one of the predicted starters if Germany progress into the later stages. Against sides with less offensive threat, Germany have used a 2-2 build-up and rest defence, while against tougher opponents they replaced an attacking full-back with a third central defender. Both David Raum and Jonas Hoffman are more offensive-minded full-backs, while Hoffman plays on the wing for his club. The pair are both good dribblers, so can maintain the width of their sides whilst also having the ability to deliver dangerous crosses into the box.
In the pivot role, a pairing of İlkay Gündoğan and Joshua Kimmich are likely to continue their partnership. Kimmich’s passing range and creativity are key to Germany’s chance creation. He is reliable on the ball in both the build-up and further up the pitch, which allows Germany to control possession of the ball. Gündoğan will act as a deeper lying midfielder, allowing Kimmich to neglect some defensive duties to have a bigger impact in the final third. Gündoğan’s positional awareness, press resistance and passing range allow him to take on responsibility off the ball. He has the nose to sniff out counterattacks, and the intelligence to launch attacks with line-breaking passes from deep. While at Manchester City he was responsible for more offensive actions, Gündoğan has had to act as a defensive midfielder in the pivot during group rival Rodri’s absence.
Thomas Müller is likely to begin as the attacking midfielder, sitting just behind the centre forward. During the two-season spell at club level under Flick, Müller tallied up 79 goal contributions in the attack hungry Bayern side. His experience at past World Cups, as well as his past performances under the very same manager, give Müller a good chance of retaining his spot. Müller is an extremely intelligent player who will likely play in his ‘space invader’ role, the same role that brought out the best of his abilities.
On the wings, Leroy Sané and Serge Gnabry will both be making their debuts at the World Cup, after being overlooked 4 years ago. Gnabry and Sané have both had strong starts to the season, and have been regarded as some of the best wide players in world football for the past couple of years. Both players are blistering quick, have the ball manipulation skills to play in tight spaces, have the ball striking to score from anywhere and have the vision to combine and create for others. The pairing will both likely play in the half spaces, but will also act as outlets in transitional situations.
Leading the line, Kai Havertz is expected to continue his role as the centre forward for Germany. The centre-forward position is one where Germany haven’t been able to produce a consistent performer, since their triumph in 2014. Havertz has showcased some strong performances, with his ability to link up play, hold the ball up, and get into the correct goalscoring positions. The 23-year-old hasn’t been too consistent this season, so he will have to step up in the coming weeks to cement his position in the starting lineup.
The above image shows the age of every player we believe may get called up to the World Cup. The majority of the squad is aged between 24 and 30, showing that this is a group of players who are mostly in their prime and also have the experience of squads in previous tournaments. The players over the age of 30 are all players who have been playing at the top level of club football for the past decade. They have shown the skill required to compete at the highest level and will carry their talent and experience into the World Cup, to share their expertise with the rest of the squad.
Attacking phase
Germany’s aggressive game plan leads to multiple goalscoring opportunities. As shown in the chart above, Germany are in the top 90th percentiles for goals, xG, shots and touches in the penalty area. This dominant approach all stems from how Germany build-up play in deep areas, rather than booting the ball long. Gündoğan and Kimmich are both heavily involved in the build-up by dropping deep to form a 4-2 shape in their own third.
As the ball is retained by Germany, the centre backs gradually move wider and away from each other, while Kimmich drops in between the two defenders. Having 3 central players in the build-up allows the two full-backs to push up high and stretch the opposition’s back line. Leaving the two fullbacks high and wide, allows the wide German players to come inside and operate in the half-spaces.
As we can see in the image below, Leroy Sané drops deeper to find an open space. He is free to move inside as Raum is in his position at LW. Furthermore, as we highlighted earlier, the likes of Süle have excellent passing abilities to break the lines and progress the ball through central areas. Receiving the ball in a central space, like Sané, means that he has more options around him than he would if he was stuck out on the left wing.
Another key tactical aspect which enables Germany to dominate their opponents is the superb positional structure that helps them to easily sustain pressure. While the image below doesn’t fully capture the scene, Germany use a 3-2-5 structure to probe the opposition defence in the final third when playing against a team which provides threat on the counter. The three defenders (LCB, RCB and RB) are always ready to cover for each other, and delay counterattacks by forcing their opponents into wide channels. The double-pivot of Gündoğan and Kimmich circulate possession between each other while Kimmich roams forward to try to unlock the opposition’s defence. In fixtures against lesser opposition, or when they are in need of a goal, Germany move to a 2-2-6 where the RW moves inside, and the RB moves into the last line.
On the left flank, David Raum pushes up and is used to retain the width and stretch their opponents’ backline. Havertz is used centrally as a point of reference for the team. In the image below, Musiala has rotated with Hoffmann, so Musiala is keeping the width on the right, while Hoffmann and Sané roam in the half-spaces to combine with the wide players and pick the ball up between the lines.
When Germany will face stubborn defences, Joshua Kimmich’s range of passing is an excellent tool to unlock a defence. In games like the one pictured below, there is no space between the lines to pass through and combine between teammates. When you can’t go through a defence, you must either go over them or around it. While Kimmich won’t dribble around a defensive block, he can take matters into his own hands by perfectly playing dangerous balls behind a defensive block. This style of pass is a trademark Kimmich move, and has often been utilised when losing in games.
The pass map below shows how Kimmich frequently attempts to play balls into the box. As we described earlier, Kimmich has recently been in a more advanced role, where you can see a heavy volume of passes in and around the final third. In 6 Nations Leagues games, he has completed 480 passes, showing just how much Germany dominate the ball against top sides like Italy, England and Hungary.
Defending phase
Defensively, we can see that for a large number of metrics, Germany rank low. However, this is not due to their defence being weak, but the fact that Germany have so much of the ball means that their defence has to make fewer interceptions and tackles per game. Germany fall in the 96th percentile for the number of recoveries in the final third, proving that they consistently win the ball back in high areas due to their strong press.
The image below displays how Germany set up to press their opponents, with Timo Werner forcing play to go to one side by cutting off one side due to the arc of his run. After Germany force a team in one direction, they put an immense amount of pressure to force their opponent into a mistake or to just clear the ball long. Germany’s strong back line allows them to be comfortable in winning aerial duels, allowing Germany to regain possession of the ball and sustain pressure.
Germany’s relentless pressure will see them dominate most games, and in doing so, we are unlikely to see them retreat back into defensive blocks for long periods of time.
Transitions
With so many German players residing in Germany, the home of the Bundesliga, many of the players are used to constant transitional scenarios which are a common theme of their domestic competition. The front trio of Germany is usually very quick, which makes them very dangerous in offensive transitions. The image below shows an example of Germany’s players being comfortable with each other and combining with each other. They play the ball to the furthest available forward, before giving the ball to someone who is facing forwards and can therefore pick out a pass.
Another dangerous asset Germany possess, is the number of powerful ball carriers which allow them to be dangerous in transitions even without the pass being on.
The problem with a double-pivot which isn’t the most energetic is that there can be too much space for opposition players on the counter to run at the defence. The double-pivot duo are tasked with not allowing their opponents to receive the ball in space, as they would be able to pick out a pass too easily otherwise. The image below shows how when the midfielders can’t get close enough to the ball, they allow their opponents to pass the ball in behind which causes problems against fast players on the counter.
Defenders
In the back line, the likes of Matthias Ginter, Thilo Kehrer and Nico Schlotterbeck will all be in contention for starting spots, especially when Germany come up against tough opposition where an extra defender who starts as a full-back will be required. All three players are capable of playing such roles, while Kehrer has been the player favoured for this position in the past.
Robin Gosens of Inter Milan will be a rotation option for either full-back position, with his experience as a wing-back allowing him to be comfortable marauding up and down the flank. Gosens has the added goal threat that these other defenders lack, which will make him an enticing option if Germany are chasing a game.
Armel Bella-Kotchap is a potential addition to the squad. There’s a chance he may not make the squad, following his recent injury causing him to miss the most recent match. However, the young centre-back made his debut for the country in September, and his performances in the Premier League prove that he is a very strong player, capable of representing Germany at the World Cup.
Midfielders
At the base of midfield Max Arnold and Leon Goretzka will offer rotation options for the double pivot. Leon Goretzka has a good chance of making it into the starting XI, however, Gündoğan’s reliability in possession and defensive intelligence will give Flick more confidence in picking him for the starting role.
If Goretzka were to start, Kimmich would have to be deployed deeper, meaning his offensive impact would be reduced. As a key player, Flick will want Kimmich to have as much of an impact on the final third as possible. Julian Brandt, Marco Reus and Jamal Musiala all offer depth behind Thomas Müller. Musiala is the most likely of these to earn a spot in the starting XI, with his impressive performances for Bayern Munich recently gaining the attention of fans.
Musiala has been extremely impressive with 10 goal contributions in 8 starts in the Bundesliga. Due to the lack of experience, Müller is expected to start although there is nothing stopping Musiala from getting into the starting squad. Florian Wirtz is an exciting player who could also be competing for the role, although due to injury, there is a worry about him not fully recovering in time, after 7 months out.
Attackers
In the front line, Germany arguably have the least quality depth. Timo Werner is a possible starter, who causes chaos for his opponents with his endless and intelligent movement, although his lack of composure and ball-striking discourage managers from starting him as a centre forward. Lukas Nmecha and Karim Adeyemi are both young players who haven’t had many opportunities with the first-team squad as of yet.
They have shown their talent in the Bundesliga, albeit Adeyemi hasn’t found the back of the net yet. A lack of depth may cause problems for Germany, should a starting player get injured during the World Cup. Some players that aren’t expected to make the squad include Niclas Fullkrug, who has enjoyed a very good start to the season, and could offer a box presence that Germany seem to lack, while Youssofa Moukoko could be a wildcard pick with his dynamic play style that can grow into something special, for the 17-year-old.
Key player
Joshua Kimmich will undoubtedly be one of the players of the tournament, and his performances will be key to how well Germany perform this winter. He completes four passes into the box per 90 on average with two of those ending up in shooting opportunities per game. With an xA of 0.22 per 90, Kimmich is likely to create a good goalscoring chance per game, which at this level could be enough to see it helping win a game. While Kimmich isn’t necessarily a direct goal threat, he does have the occasional long shot in his locker thanks to his ability to curl shots in the top corner.
Kimmich’s passing metrics are clearly out of this world. He completes 77 passes per game on average, showing that he is extremely comfortable playing for a possession-based side, whilst also being in the top 87.5% for forward passes and progressive passes into the final third. Kimmich’s long ball ratio and smart passes per 90 show that Kimmich doesn’t only play short passes, but he can break lines and also play over the top of a defensive back line.
Defensively, while Kimmich doesn’t get involved in defending scenarios too often, due to his possession-based team dynamics, his 63% win rate of defensive duels shows that he will get stuck in and is likely to win his duels, especially in defensive transition.
Tournament prediction
Given everything that’s been mentioned about Germany in this article, and the history of the Germans having World Cup success in their DNA, they will be confident about their chances going into Qatar. Germany are expected to get out of their group against Spain, Japan and Costa Rica. Spain go into the group as favourites but Germany are clear favourites for second place.
If Germany were to finish second, they would have to play the winner of group F. This could likely be against a Belgium side who are looking to have one last dance with their golden generation. The path through the knockout stages could be extremely difficult for Germany, but there is also a possibility to finish the group on top as well, as their free-scoring side could boost their goal difference in the early stages.
We expect Germany to reach the quarter-finals stage after winning their group and beating second place in Group F. However, they would then meet a Brazilian side seeking revenge. That is the potential banana skin which could see Germany collapse and come crashing out of the World Cup.
