Bolivia have been one of the ever-present teams in the Copa America over the course of the tournament’s history and will be part of the 2024 edition as well.
They have been drawn into Group C alongside Uruguay, the USA and Panama.
La Verde is currently in a transitional phase of sorts, with Marcelo Martins, their leading scorer and arguably their greatest player ever, retiring earlier this year.
However, they also have some exciting talent in the pipeline, and this summer’s Copa America could see some of those players explode.
Bolivia have also made two coaching changes in the last two years after César Farías’ second term ended in March 2022.
Gustavo Costas took over only in November but oversaw just 10 matches before being replaced by current head coach Antônio Carlos Zago, who joined in October last year.
The former Bolívar and Sport Club Internacional manager is contracted until 2025 and is also expected to oversee them at the 2024 Paris Olympics.
Bolivia’s recent form has been a cause for concern.
They have won just three of the 19 matches they have played since January 2022.
La Verde faced Brazil twice and Argentina once in that run (losing by a combined 12-1 on aggregate) but have also suffered demoralising defeats to Panama, Peru, Uzbekistan, and Paraguay.
During Zago’s reign, they won twice and lost twice, scoring five times and conceding six.
They will play in three friendly matches prior to the Copa America, facing off against Mexico on June 1, Ecuador on June 13, and Colombia on June 15.
Zago will hope his side can pick up some momentum in those games in the lead-up to the tournament Bolivia have won once almost 60 years back.
More recently, though, they have failed to get out of the group stage in each of the last three Copas America.
Predicted Starting XI
Bolivia are yet to announce their squad for the Copa America.
Their most recent squad, announced for the friendlies in March against Algeria (3-2 loss) and Andorra (1-0 win), provide some insight into who might be picked.
This was their 25-man contingent (with their clubs in brackets) for those two matches:-
Goalkeepers: Guillermo Viscarra (The Strongest), David Akologo (Aurora), Bruno Poveda (Wilstermann)
Defenders: José Sagredo (Bolívar), Adrián Jusino (The Strongest), Roberto Fernández (Baltika Kaliningrad), Luis Haquin (Ponte Preta), Diego Medina (Always Ready), Marcelo Suárez (Always Ready), Yomar Rocha (Bolívar), Daniel Lino (The Strongest)
Midfielders: Rodrigo Ramallo (The Strongest), Ramiro Vaca (Bolívar), Moisés Villarroel (Guabirá), Jaime Arrascaita (The Strongest), Boris Céspedes (Yverdon-Sport), Gabriel Villamil (LDU Quito), Miguel Terceros (Santos), Robson Tomé (Always Ready), Pablo Vaca (Always Ready), Rafinha (Blooming)
Forwards: Carmelo Algarañaz (Bolívar), Jaume Cuéllar (Barcelona B), Jair Reinoso (Aurora), César Menacho (Blooming)
The Strongest were the most represented club, with five of their players making it into the squad.
Bolivia boast a fairly young squad, with an average age of just below 26, suggesting that they have a good mix of upcoming talent, players at their peak and veterans.
Following Martins’ retirement, the onus will be on the likes of Céspedes, Arrascaita and Ramallo to lead a young team brimming with potential.
This will likely be their strongest starting lineup, given the aforementioned list ends up being their squad for the upcoming Copa America.
Attacking Phase
As evident above, Bolivia are clear underdogs in almost every category compared to their peers at the Copa America.
As we will see later, they are likely to depend on counterattacks, though there have been some promising signs in their build-up under Zago.
Bolivia’s build-up in their last two official games has been initiated by their three centre-backs (marked in white).
A midfielder (marked in black) drops back for support, while the wing-backs (white) stay high and wide up the pitch, allowing the wingers (blue) to tuck in.
This often helps them find open passes from defence to midfield and then tilt the field to one side, opening the pitch up for switches.
Notice the gaps between the Peru centre-backs, which are spaces that the Bolivian forwards could run into to get in behind goal.
Zago’s side also have five men in advanced positions against four covering defenders (and two more players retreating), giving them a numerical advantage.
We see a more improved version of the same below, where the third centre-back moves in between the defensive and midfield line.
This is followed by more short passes to further draw the field to the left before the switch to the right, this time closer to the penalty box, with the right wing-back again in acres of space.
Once again, we notice a massive gap between the Peru centre-backs, leaving space for the Bolivia forward to run into the box.
Bolivia lack the quality to make these chances count at times, however.
On both of the occasions detailed above, the player out wide on the right failed to control the ball, thus ending a fruitless spell of possession.
Bolivia’s attacking avenues also seemed fairly limited during their matches against Peru and Uruguay last year.
They had reasonable success from positional attacks, with 22.73% of those resulting in shots, while they struggled from set pieces (only 8.89% ended in a shot) and created no shots from the five corners they won across both games.
However, they did score from the second phase of a free-kick against Algeria, and as expected from the nature of their build-up play, they netted following a cutback in their win over Andorra.
They also posed a threat on the counterattack – an aspect that came through against Uruguay and Peru as well (two out of their five counters across those games ended in a shot) – which could be essential for them at the Copa America as well.
Defending Phase
As the radar shows, Bolivia has ranked quite high in interceptions and defensive duels per match.
They also give away quite a few fouls (27 in total across their matches against Peru and Uruguay).
There are quite a few concerns for this team, though, which Zago will need to find a way around ahead of the Copa America.
In this sequence from their defeat to Uruguay, Bolivia don’t press the centre-backs, dropping back instead into a 1-5-4 (and later a 1-4-5) from front to back, clogging up the midfield spaces.
Their backline is tilted a little towards the left wing, baiting a switch to the right, which is underhit, allowing them to clear.
However, this was a game in which they had only around 30% possession and a passes per defensive action (PPDA) figure of 17.6 (compared to Uruguay’s 4.93), suggesting that the set-up was expected to be defensive.
Their match against Peru, where their PPDA dropped to 8.48 (against Peru’s 9.52) and they had 42.05% possession, portrayed a slightly different image.
Here, Bolivia commit men to the press, and in the top-right slide, we see six of their players and six of Peru’s.
However, one of the rotations doesn’t happen, leaving one player from each team unmarked on either flank.
A Bolivian player notices this and tries to cut out that option when the man on the ball tries to turn but wouldn’t have gotten there anyway, and the latter turns his man brilliantly to escape the press altogether.
As we then see further below, Bolivia have left acres of space behind.
The ball carrier opts to pass to the wing rather than into open space in midfield, which ultimately sees the move result in nothing.
However, these are warning signs for Bolivia as they could be punished for leaving so much space between their midfield and defence.
Some of this could also be due to a lack of communication, which is an aspect Bolivia need to perfect regardless of their defensive tactics at the Copa America, particularly against Uruguay, who they will face again, but also versus Panama and the USA.
Transitions
As explained earlier, Bolivia enjoyed limited success from set-pieces in their two most recent official matches.
However, they did get some joy on the counter, with two of their five combined counterattacks against Peru and Uruguay resulting in a shot.
If they choose to play underdog football at the Copa America, particularly against Uruguay and the USA, their best avenues for scoring could be on the break after winning the ball back or forcing a turnover in possession.
The example below from their recent win over Peru is a good example of Zago’s men using counters to create opportunities.
When Bolivia initially win the ball back, they have space, but multiple defenders to get through.
However, a pass into a forward and then to the wing allows time for their runners to make their way forward and results in what is effectively a 4v3 (or 3v2) close to the penalty area.
A cross comes in from the right, and a clever run in behind his marker allows a Bolivia forward to meet it unmarked, but the final shot is high and wide.
This is an area where Bolivia need to maintain composure as we see the goalkeeper staying on his line, which means the forward could have taken a touch and then slotted it home rather than volleying it over with a first-time effort.
If they can inculcate some solidity into their defensive shape, Bolivia will likely get opportunities like this, particularly in a tournament like the Copa America.
Staying calm under pressure and applying the right finish will be vital for their chances.
Defenders
Bolivia’s three-man backline will undoubtedly be crucial to their build-up play.
At the same time, their wing-backs give them additional bodies upfront in a classic use of the 3-4-3 to outnumber the opposition in the final third.
In defence, Sagredo, who has won 51 caps for his country, will be relied upon for his experience.
The veteran, 30, enjoyed a decent Copa Libertadores campaign with Bolívar this year and will need to translate that form into the Copa America.
Sagredo’s passing was solid (83.8% accuracy on 55.40 attempts per 90), and he played quite a few line-breaking passes, with 3.80 in the final third per 90.
He is an understandably robust defensive presence as well, averaging 1.20 clearances, 1.80 blocks and 4.20 clearances per 90.
At the other end of the spectrum, 22-year-olds Medina and Lino are exciting prospects and could be wildcards for Bolivia in the tournament.
Both enjoyed solid stints for Always Ready and The Strongest this season while also impressing for their nation.
Lino scored once and assisted twice in 16 Bolivian top-flight games this season, with excellent passing into the final third (60.9% accuracy) and penalty area (72.7% accuracy).
On the other hand, Medina won a whopping 87.8% of his duels, including 70% of his aerial duels, in his six league games, showcasing his defensive ability.
Midfielders
With respect to number of appearances for Bolivia, their projected midfield is likely to be the most experienced and will shoulder a lot of defensive and offensive weight for the team.
Ramallo, with 41 caps, and youngster Ramiro Vaca, who already has 31 caps, will undoubtedly be crucial for the team but could end up playing further up the pitch.
Céspedes could thus be key in the two-man central midfield for Bolivia.
The 15-time international has plied his trade in Switzerland over the past few years and boasts big-game experience, having played in the Copa America and qualifiers of the UEFA Europa League and Europa Conference League.
This season, Céspedes featured in 36 league matches for his new team Yverdon Sport and found his goalscoring touch, notching up six goals and an assist.
His long passing (61.6% accuracy on 4.98 per game), in particular, could prove crucial for Bolivia, given that their tactical approach involves crossfield switches.
He also averaged 8.49 recoveries, 1.60 clearances and 4.75 interceptions, while his 4.81 passes into the final third (68.4% accuracy) suggest he can be a threat across the pitch.
Forwards
Young gun Ramiro Vaca is a crucial name to watch out here, but centre-forward Algarañaz will be tasked with finishing chances and seeing Bolivia through to the knockouts.
The 28-year-old has not enjoyed the best of starts to his national-team career, netting just twice in 21 appearances.
However, across his stints for Always Ready and his current club, Bolívar, he has shown that he can find the back of the net, scoring 53 goals in 130 matches.
He has also added 11 assists for good measure.
Algarañaz netted five goals in 11 league games this season from an xG of 3.9.
He is not a high-volume shooter (1.65 shots per game) but gets a respectable 41.2% of his shots on target.
His passing will also be essential for Bolivia, as he completed 82.1% of his 15.69 passes per game.
He’s also a decent ball carrier, with 2.23 dribbles per game (39.1% success rate).
Key Player
With Marcelo Martins gone, Ramiro Vaca will be expected to shoulder the burden of spearheading Bolivia at this year’s Copa America.
Despite being just 24 years old, the prodigy has already racked up 31 appearances for Bolivia, scoring four times.
One of those was the winner in their most recent match against Andorra, as he swept home after initiating the move and crashing the box to score from a cutback.
This season, Vaca was one of the go-to options in attack for Bolívar.
As his heatmap below shows, he largely occupies the left half-spaces, playing as a left-sided attacking midfielder or inside winger, a position he’s expected to take up for Bolivia at the Copa America as well.
In the league, he averaged 3.49 shots per game, getting 38.2% on target and scoring thrice from an xG of 2.24.
He also racked up three assists (expected assists figure of 2.51) while completing a commendable 81.6% of his 7.8 passes into the final third per game and 84.2% of his 43 overall passes per game.
In the Copa Libertadores, Vaca seemed to hit another level, scoring twice and assisting twice in five matches.
In per 90 stats, his goals assists (both 0.43), non-penalty xG (0.26) and non-penalty xG per shot (0.13) were all in or above the 95th percentile among his peers.
For good measure, his progressive passes (9.93), key passes (4.53) and passes into the final third (9.06), as well as his shot-creating actions from live-ball passes (4.53) and goal-creating actions from dead-ball passes (0.43) per 90 also rank in or above the 95th percentile, further underlining his incredible goalscoring and creative potential.
While he isn’t the greatest dribbler, his 1.73 carries per 90 into the final third ranked him in the 84th percentile.
He has been dispossessed a few times and can miscontrol the ball on a few occasions as well, but overall, Vaca is a threat every time he is on the ball.
If Bolivia are to make it out of a tough group, Vaca will have to be at his brilliant best in all three group-stage games.
Tournament prediction
While Vaca’s brilliance could potentially carry Bolivia into the knockouts, it still seems like a far-fetched idea.
Uruguay have had their number in recent times and have been in tremendous form under Marcelo Bielsa, winning six of his nine matches in charge, while scoring 20 goals and conceding eight.
Additionally, the USA lifted the Concacaf Nations League title back in March and boast an extremely talented young squad that featured at the 2022 FIFA World Cup.
Bolivia should finish above Panama but will ultimately fall short of the knockouts.
