As the Bundesliga season nears its conclusion, the relegation battle has reached a fever pitch, with several clubs on the edge of the abyss. In the German top flight, the stakes are high, as the last two positions in the league table result in direct relegation to the 2. Bundesliga. Meanwhile, the team finishing in 16th place faces a nerve-wracking two-leg playoff against the third-place finisher from the lower division.
While Darmstadt 98 has already been condemned to the second tier, the fight for survival intensifies among Köln, Mainz, Bochum, Union Berlin, and Gladbach. With each match becoming increasingly crucial, the tension mounts as these clubs battle to secure their Bundesliga status for another season.
In this data analysis, we delve into the statistics, trends, and data shaping this intense relegation battle in the 2023/2024 Bundesliga season.
Methodology
For this analysis of the relegation battle in the German Bundesliga, we will employ a comprehensive methodology to evaluate the performances of the clubs threatened by relegation. With 31 out of 34 games played in the 2023/2024 season, the clubs in focus include Köln, Mainz, Bochum, Union Berlin, and Gladbach, with Darmstadt already officially relegated. By systematically analyzing factors, we aim to provide a comprehensive overview of the relegation battle and evaluate which clubs are best positioned to secure their Bundesliga status by the end of the season.
Overall Performance
We will compare the actual points earned by each team with their expected points based on statistical models, providing insight into their overperformance or underperformance relative to expectations.
We will analyze the offensive output of each club by assessing both the number of goals scored and the expected goals based on shot quality and shot location data.
We will also evaluate the defensive performances of the clubs by examining the goals conceded and the expected goals against, indicating the effectiveness of their defensive strategies and goalkeeping.
Based on the comparison between points earned and expected points (xPoints), we can assess the overall performances of the relegation-threatened clubs in the 2023/2024 Bundesliga season.
Despite earning 23 points, 1. FC Köln’s xPoints indicate that they should have accrued slightly more (27.1), suggesting some underperformance. They have struggled defensively, conceding 53 goals compared to an xGA of 62.86. Offensively, they have scored 24 goals, which is significantly lower than their xG of 37.34.
FSV Mainz have earned 28 points but has significantly underperformed their xPoints of 45.1, indicating they have been unfortunate. Their defence has been solid, conceding 41 goals compared to an xGA of 37.9. However, their attack has struggled to convert chances, scoring 32 goals against an xG of 44.47.
VfL Bochum has earned 30 points, closely aligning with their xPoints, suggesting their performances have been in line with expectations. They have faced challenges defensively, conceding a high number of 60 goals with an xGA of 57.77. Offensively, they have scored only 37 goals, below their xG of 46.47.
With 30 points earned, Union Berlin have slightly underperformed their xPoints of 34.6. Defensively, they have conceded 50 goals against an xGA of 48.77. Their attacking output has also been below expectations, scoring 26 goals compared to an xG of 37.04.
Borussia Mönchengladbach have earned 32 points, underperforming their xPoints of 40.2. Defensively, they have struggled, conceding 60 goals against an xGA of 57.52. However, their attack has been relatively effective, scoring 53 goals compared to an xG of 50.7.
While some teams have performed close to expectations based on xPoints, others have underperformed, indicating areas for improvement in both defence and attack.
Playing Style
Next up, we will assess each team’s playing style in terms of intensity and directness, considering metrics such as pressing rates, pass completion percentages, and attacking approach. In the 2023/2024 Bundesliga season, the relegation-threatened clubs’ playing styles vary in directness and intensity.
1. FC Köln’s playing style is characterized by a moderate level of challenge intensity (5.2) and a relatively high PPDA (14.01), indicating a balanced approach defensively. In possession, they exhibit a direct style with 13.2 passes per minute, although they also resort to long passes frequently (39.93).
FSV Mainz showcase a high challenge intensity (5.8) compared to Köln and maintains a low PPDA (10.05), indicating a proactive defensive approach. Their style in possession is quite direct, with 13.5 passes per minute, while also utilizing long passes to a significant extent (51.12).
VfL Bochum play with the highest challenge intensity (6.3) of all clubs in the league and boasts the lowest PPDA (8.69) among the relegation-threatened clubs, indicating an aggressive and intense defensive approach. They demonstrate a direct playing style with 12.4 passes per minute in possession, often resorting to long passes (55.3) to transition quickly.
Union Berlin combine a relatively low challenge intensity (4.9) with a moderate PPDA (14.09), suggesting a balanced defensive approach. In possession, they maintain a slightly more direct style with 13.8 passes per minute, accompanied by a significant use of long passes (45.61).
Borussia Mönchengladbach exhibit a similar challenge intensity (4.9) and PPDA (14.51) to Union Berlin, indicating a balanced defensive strategy. They adopt a less direct approach in possession, with 15 passes per minute, while also utilizing long passes (39.92) to progress play efficiently.
While each club employs its unique playing style, there are common themes of directness and intensity. Defensive and offensive strategies vary depending on the team’s strengths and weaknesses.
Coaching Situations & Form Trend
We will examine the stability and effectiveness of the coaching setups at each club, considering factors such as tenure, tactics, and previous managerial success. Also, We will analyze the recent form of each club, looking at their results and performances in the most recent matches leading up to matchday 34 to identify any momentum shifts or trends that could impact their relegation battle.
Despite a disappointing season resulting in relegation, Torsten Lieberknecht will continue as head coach at SV Darmstadt 98 into the new season in the 2. Bundesliga. The team’s low average of 0.55 points per game reflects their struggles. Currently, they sit 16th in the form table, having garnered only 4 points from their last five games.
After parting ways with Steffan Baumgart, Timo Schultz took over at 1. FC Köln and managed to improve the team’s average points per game from 0.63 to 0.87. However, their form remains concerning, as they sit 14th in the form table with just 5 points from their last five matches.
1. FSV Mainz experienced managerial changes, with Bo Svensson being sacked early in the season. His successor, Bo Henriksen, has shown promise with an average of 1.60 points per game. In the form table, they are on Champions League course, standing 3rd even ahead of FC Bayern and Borussia Dortmund, having accumulated 9 points from their last five games.
Thomas Letsch’s departure mid-season led to interim manager Heiko Butscher taking charge of VfL Bochum. Their current coach has only overseen three matches and is likely to be replaced at the end of the season. Bochum sits 12th in the form table, securing 5 points from their last five games.
Urs Fischer’s exit saw Nenad Bjelica take over at Union Berlin, leading the team to an improved average of 1.19 points per game. However, Bjelica is expected to leave after the season ends. Union Berlin’s recent form has been poor, ranking 18th in the form table with just 2 points from their last five matches.
Gerardo Seoane, appointed at the start of the season, has faced challenges following the departure of key players at Borussia Mönchengladbach. With an average of 1.03 points per game, their performance has been inconsistent. In the form table, they are placed 15th, securing 4 points from their last five games.
Conclusion
1. FC Köln’s current position in the table seems fitting, although they are slightly underperforming compared to expectations. It might be too late already to turn the situation around. A direct relegation is likely, with only a very small chance of getting into the playoffs, at least.
1. Despite underperforming overall this season, FSV Mainz has shown remarkable form recently, ranking third-best among all clubs in the league from the last five games. If they maintain this streak, they stand a good chance of avoiding relegation and the playoffs.
VfL Bochum’s performance closely aligns with their expected points, but their vulnerability to conceding goals puts them at risk, especially with Mainz’s improving form posing a direct threat.
Union Berlin, while also close to their expected points, face challenges due to their recent poor form, making it unsurprising that discussions about their head coach are ongoing. Without a turnaround, they could find themselves in a precarious position, potentially facing the playoffs.
Borussia Mönchengladbach appear relatively well-positioned with a moderate squad and a historically successful coach. However, their propensity for conceding goals is a concern, and they must remain focused in the remaining matches of the season to secure their place in the league.
