Popovic’s Playbook: Unveiling strategies for Melbourne Victory’s 2023/24 title surge – tactical analysis

Since the establishment of the Australian A-League in 2004, Melbourne Victory has been one of the dominant forces in the division, having won three Premiers and have been crowned Champions on four occasions. However, you have to go back to the 2014/15 season for the last time that Victory won the Premier.

New life has been breathed into the club though since the appointment of Tony Popovic in April 2021, previously dubbed the “Popa-lution” by the Sydney Morning Herald. Popovic – the former club captain of Premier League outfit Crystal Palace – didn’t have to wait too long for silverware, lifting the now-Australia Cup less than a year in charge.

Off-the-field antics threatened to derail this new era, and despite finishing in second place in the 2021/22 season, Victory slumped to a disappointing 11th-place finish last time out. However, Popovic’s side are back in the title race this campaign, sitting fourth in the division, six points off the top spot with a game in hand.

Despite only one defeat this campaign, Victory has succumbed to too many draws – nine in 16 so far. In this tactical analysis, we will assess Victory’s start to the season and focus analysis on recent matches. We will delve into Popovic’s tactics to determine how they might go about changing their fortunes to start converting their draws into wins.

Too many stalemates

A former central defender in his playing days, it is no real surprise how solid Popovic’s side is at the back. Typically lining up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, Victory has the joint-tightest defence in the division, only conceding 18 goals to date.

At face value, Victory are also strong with respect to their attacking credentials. The Australian side has scored 28 league goals. The joint top scorers in the division, Perth Glory, Central Coast, and Macarthur – who, with the exception of Perth Glory, have all played an extra game   have each only scored four more goals than Victory. It is, therefore, feasible that the Victoria-based side could soon be topping the goal-scoring charts.

Looking at the goals scored statistic doesn’t paint the full picture for the Melbourne club. A deeper dive into the distribution of goals scored per game offers more insight…

The above graph shows a skewed distribution: Victory are scoring once in the vast majority of their matches. Having played 16 matches to date, Victory has scored over 50% of their total goals in just four matches.

Popovic’s side has ironically conceded more than average in most of their high-scoring games. Victory is conceding 1.13 goals per match, and considering that, more often than not, they are only scoring one goal per game themselves, it is no wonder the Victoria side has become so accustomed to stalemates this campaign.

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