The term ‘bottom at Christmas’ has become synonymous in the footballing world with teams fighting for their lives towards the foot of the table.
While great escapes have occurred, and the end-of-year standings are not necessarily a truly accurate measure of final league position, it paints a fascinating picture of which teams across Europe are trending towards relegation.
As for Valencia in LaLiga, a hard-fought point against Deportivo Alaves ensured they would avoid the infamous slogan and enter the winter break in 19th — crucially, an extra place above Real Valladolid on goal difference.
However, the general atmosphere around the historic and once-successful Spanish outfit is dismal at best, with fans almost accepting that there will be no way to escape the eventual drop into the Segunda División.
It matches Valencias structural weakness, which extends from the pitch to the top of the boardroom.
Fans are openly frustrated with how their club has been mismanaged.
The point against Alaves was not enough to save manager Rubén Barajas job.
After taking over in early 2023, Baraja had successfully guided the club through another tumultuous period.
Just two wins in 17 matches saw one of Valencia’s greatest legends packing his bags, with the club immediately looking overseas in search of their new successor.
Carlos Corberán returns to his boyhood club, having developed an excellent reputation through his efforts in the EFL Championship with Huddersfield and West Brom.
Valencia fans hope that Corberán can quickly instil some of the qualities that have allowed West Brom to threaten the playoffs over the past couple of seasons.
This tactical analysis will begin to highlight Valencias weaknesses under Baraja this season while also showcasing elements of Corberán’s tactics that could prove effective for his new team.
Valencia’s Squad Composition
For a squad that competed in the UEFA Champions League as recently as 2020, Valencias rapid downfall in league position and overall expectations would baffle fans who don’t necessarily pay close attention to Spanish football.
However, examining their transfer policy over the past few years would highlight a frustrating commitment to extracting profit from their most valuable assets without necessarily replacing the squads La Liga-level quality.
This creates a clear issue regarding the overall quality to help Valencia steer clear of the relegation zone, one which has been made apparent with multiple Valencia managers having to flirt with the threat of finishing in the bottom three.
After the 2024/25 summer window, Valencia spent around €1.35m overall, which led to another season of an under-resourced squad despite the addition of loans and free transfers.
It mirrors a trend that has seen Valencia reach a cumulative spending total of €42m over the past five seasons, with Los Ches being left in the dust by previous rivals in the pursuit of European football.
Perhaps the nail in the coffin has been the sale of star goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili to Liverpool.
The meagre €30m fee appears to be significantly discounted, considering how influential the Georgian was on the clubs defensive strength.
When analysing post-shot expected goals prevented—goals conceded, Mamardashvili ranked as the third most successful keeper in Europe’s big five leagues, with a figure of +8.2, which signifies his talents between the sticks.
So even though Valencia were able to regain the services of Mamardashvili through a season-long loan deal, the current 2024/25 statistical figure of -0.09 would highlight the deterioration of Valencia’s defensive unit overall.
Current Defensive Frailties
Having already hired Carlos Corberán and previously requested the services of Quique Sánchez Flores, it is apparent that the Valencia hierarchy have seemingly aimed to mitigate the defensive weaknesses that have plagued their season thus far.
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