Many people misconstrue the concept of value in betting, and it is important to understand what value is if you’re looking to turn a profit when gambling.
Let’s dive further into this with our guide to finding value in the market.
To many, it is assumed ‘value betting’ is simply picking a winner, regardless of the price.
The reality is that a bet can still be a bad bet, even if it does win.
Odds are driven by traders within a bookmaker, who price the specific markets based on their belief in the probability of something happening in a football match.
Whether it be the chances of a team winning, a team to have a certain number of corners, or even a player to have a certain number of passes, or tackles in a game.
From a punter’s perspective, the key to finding value is to find a bet you believe has been priced incorrectly, meaning you think it has a higher probability of occurring than that of the bookmaker.
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For example, you can calculate the probability of a player scoring a goal in any given game by considering various factors.
Once you have decided on what you believe the probability of the player scoring a goal is, you can consider whether this is in line with what the bookmaker is offering.
To put it simply, you may believe the striker has a one-in-five chance of scoring in the game, whereas the bookmaker has offered up a price of 9/1.
As a result, this would constitute a value bet, as according to the probability calculated, if the match was played out ten times, you believe the player should score twice, whereas the bookies believe they would only score once.
As a result, over the long run, and given that you are calculating the probability correctly, you should theoretically turn a profit, thus making the bet valuable.
Trying to find value in football is tough, especially in the mainstream markets, as these are the markets with the highest interest and the largest volume of data available to a bookmaker to price correctly.
Whilst the Premier League, La Liga, and other top leagues may have the most-watched games, they are not always the best value for money, and it is worth looking into other markets as well.
The use of statistical data, such as expected goals, has been a critical driver in the move away from form to dictate the prices of markets, notably the win and goal markets, and as a result, these are the markets most likely to be priced correctly, and hardest to work value out of.
Expected goals work out the exact probability of any given shot in a football match finding the back of the net. While it isn’t a perfect metric, it is as scientific and accurate as a bookmaker can find to quantify a team’s attacking and defensive threat. It can help bookies, as well as punters, identify where the anomalies in form and goal-scoring may be for a side.
Value can be found in these markets. However, the rise of niche markets, such as that of bookings, corners, or even individual player statistics, has opened up a new avenue for finding value.
With the tactical side and the context of one game-changing so massively, having an in-depth knowledge of a side’s players or being able to read how a game will play can lead you to find the edge on the bookies in these markets and thus the value within a market.
These markets are often priced purely based on statistics, much like goal and win markets, with very little outside influence factored in.
However, knowing that a team will set up tactically in a certain way or look to target a player on a particular flank can open up many more possibilities, especially in individual markets.
Places like Opta are an excellent source for stats and research.
Prices between bookmakers can often differ, and it is always essential to make sure you are getting the best value for your bet.
Part of value betting is ensuring you get the best price available, so using odds comparison sites is essential, particularly when looking for long-term profit.
Prices are particularly volatile in the aforementioned statistical markets, where opinion plays a massive part, so being aware of the different options is critical.
Summary:
It is essential to understand that a value bet doesn’t necessarily have to be a winner.
Whether it is a value bet is determined before the market goes live; the skill is determining what constitutes a value bet.
If you master this skill, you will see a long-term return on your investment and not be left guessing and punting on the short prices bookmakers may offer.
Whether it is a value bet does come down to your own individual judgement, but if you believe you have the statistical data or outside-of-the-box thinking that otherwise suggests that the bet has a higher probability of landing than the bookmaker, you should come up trumps.
