Covid-19 safety measures have had a big impact on soccer this season, but how is it affecting the outcomes of the matches?
Impact of Covid-19 on Soccer Matches
Soccer fans breathed a sigh of relief when matches resumed for the new season in Europe, after the long hiatus brought on by the pandemic. With many safety measures still in place, however, it is a season unlike any other we have seen before. How much are the matches being impacted by the changes, and what difference could this make for sports betting?
This season looks to be a tricky one for the bookies, as the circumstances make unexpected results more frequent. Find the new online casinos offering sportsbook at new-casino.ca, some lucky bettors are bound to clean up this year. Let’s take a look at exactly how the game could be impacted.
The Home Advantage
The biggest and most obvious difference about this season is the lack of fans in the stadiums. Some leagues, such as Germany’s Bundesliga, allow a few to attend matches and keep social distance. Others are entirely devoid of spectators, including the English Premier League. Some broadcasters overlay crowd noises for audiences watching at home, which helps maintain the illusion of some atmosphere. For the players, there is nothing but eerie silence punctuated by the shouts of their colleagues and the sound of a boot on leather.
Naturally, the lack of cheering fans has had an effect on player morale. Some of the games early on in the EPL season were notable for their sluggish pace and low energy performances. Early analysis suggests that it has also eroded the famous home advantage, with fewer home wins than usual since play resumed. Odds makers have accounted for a reduction in the home advantage, although so far they have been under-valuing draw results, which have been higher than usual.
Two of the biggest upsets in the EPL so far this season were away wins. In an extraordinary day of football, Manchester United and reigning champions Liverpool were both soundly beaten at their home stadiums. Anyone surprised by the scoreline of the Man United match – 6-1 to opponents Tottenham – would have been astounded by the later result. Liverpool conceded seven goals to Aston Villa, a team on the verge of relegation last year. Such upsets are obviously hard to predict, but there is one lesson we can take away – this is a season where anything can happen.
Unexpected Illness
Players, managers, whole teams – even this early in the season we have seen many key personnel affected by the virus. One high profile example is Christiano Ronaldo, who missed a long-anticipated Champions League clash with Barcelona after testing positive for the third time in a row. The bookies judged it a fairly even match, favouring Barça overall. They were correct in their analysis, and Juve failed to score even once.
The bookies probably accounted for Ronaldo’s absence when calculating odds, but they don’t always catch potential contributing factors. Smaller matches with less high-profile players receive less scrutiny, and here it is possible to find some good value bets. If a manager or coach tests positive, this can have an enormous knock-on effect on team morale. The virus, and how it influences outcomes via those infected, is another factor to look out for this season.
Long-Term Effects
In the longer term, the impact of the virus will be felt throughout the game. There have already been financial repercussions, with the value of players dropping steeply. Clubs that rely more heavily on revenue from spectators are at a distinct disadvantage. Over the next few seasons, there are likely to be some big upsets in all leagues. We expect the football landscape to look very different over the next few years, as the game adjusts to the changes wrought by the virus.
