So far, EURO 2024 has been a very emotional tournament for many people, but fans of two nations were still attracting even more attention than others because of their passion. Now, these two teams, Türkiye and the Netherlands, are going to meet in the quarter-finals.
Both teams have had varying experiences this tournament, and their path into the last eight teams has been somewhat rocky. While Türkiye were able to get past the group stages fairly easily, they struggled big time in the Round of 16 against Austria and only barely managed to scrape by in a rather lucky 2-1 win. On the other hand, the Netherlands had some troubles in the group stages of this year’s Euros, which was seen by their loss against Austria on Matchday 3, but came into their own in their Round of 16 matchup against Romania, convincingly beating them 3-0.
On paper, the tie seems rather one-sided. Theres a strong argument the Netherlands have been one of the better teams in this years Euros; their xG value of 6.89 ranks fourth only behind giants Germany, Spain and Portugal, while their xGA value of 4.76 isn’t great but still above average. On the other hand, Türkiye have created 5.55 xG throughout their four games, which is not an alarming stat at all, but have conceded 7.54 xGa, with only Georgia and Scotland conceding more goals than they have. In the end, Türkiye still managed to make their way to the quarters, so they shouldn’t be underestimated.
In this tactical analysis, we will provide an analysis of the tactics that helped them prevail in the tournament thus far, how their matchup will shake up, and what points could give one team a slight edge over their competitor. This side of the tournament tree is considered the more accessible side of the bracket, so the victor will be able to play a struggling England or Switzerland for a place in the grand final in Berlin. This game will be all about building confidence in their own strengths.
Predicting the Netherlands lineup
Ronald Koeman has taken different approaches to each of the four games the Dutch have played so far. While they have played with a back four for three of the matches, they also showed the ability to play with a back three in their first game against Poland. Considering Türkiyes defensive struggles against Austria, however, it would be shocking if the Dutch gaffer decided to stray away from the 4-2-3-1 formation they had used in the previous two games.
Koeman will likely not participate in a big rotation with no current suspensions. Verbruggen will start at the goal, with Aké being set at left-back, and Van Dijk and De Vrij seem to be Koemans favoured pairing at centre-back. At right-back, Denzel Dumfries should hold the edge because of his offensive firepower over Geertruida. Jerdy Shouten and Tijiani Reijnders will likely start as a double-pivot in midfield, with Gakpo, Simon and Depay playing upfront.
The last place in the starting lineup will likely go towards Donyell Malen, who was left on the bench for the first half against Romania but was an electric sub, providing his team with two goals in the closing minutes of the game. The key player will be Gakpo, arguably the best attacker in the tournament so far and the Netherlands lifeline during these last couple of games.
Predicting the lineup for Türkiye
Türkiye played with a back four for the entirety of the group stages but went with a back three in the fixture against Austria. Even though they won the game, they conceded a huge number of chances against themselves in the round of 16, so they will probably convert back to their 4-2-3-1 formation as well.
Unlike Ronald Koeman, Vincenzo Montella will not be able to use all of his players on Saturday. His starting double-pivot against Austria, Orkun Kökcü and Ismail Yüksek will both miss the game due to suspension. On the other hand, Hakan Çalhanoglu will be coming back to the squad after being suspended against Austria and once again be the key player to Türkiyes success.
After his stellar performance in the last game, Günok will once again start in goal. The back-four will consist of Kardioglu as left-back, Demiral and Barkdaci as centre-back, and Mert Müldür will start on the right-defensive side. Kaan Ayhan und Çalhanoglu will probably start in defensive midfield, with Arda Güler taking on the attacking role in midfield. Yildiz and Atürkoglu will play on the wings, and Montella will look to start Yilmaz up front. As stated before, Türkiyes key player to advancing into the semi-finals will be Hakan Çalhanoglu. No player in Montellas squad comes close to the Inter players class with the ball.
The Dutch attacking threat
While Koeman has a traditional target man in his squad in Wout Weghorst, he mostly does not use this option to start games. The Dutch usually play with four very mobile, attacking-oriented players and use a lot of movement to create their goalscoring chances.
Especially Memphis Depay is interpreting his position upfront as very liberal. He is roaming and falling back into the midfield a lot, which opens up a lot of space for his teammates to move into the space upfront he leaves vacant. Xavi Simons is also moving around a lot to complement Depays movement well. This allows him to receive the ball in between the lines of the opposing defence a lot, which helps the Netherlands to create a lot of chances.
This movement pattern opens the opportunity for the two Wingers to move into the centre and play an inverse role. This means both wingers are always trying to move inwards and forcing the opposing backline to react. While both wingers are reasonably free in their decision of where to receive the ball, at some point, they are moving inwards. Gakpos goal against Romania is a great example of that pattern.
Depay moves around a lot and forces the defender to react to him coming into midfield and then making a deep run. Both wingers are wide enough to open up space for Simons, who receives the ball between the lines and can turn towards the goal quickly. He passes the ball out to Gakpo, who moves inside swiftly and has enough space to get his shot off, resulting in a goal.
The second goal against Romania is an even better example. It resulted from a throw-in for Koemans squad.
