Do Porto have what it takes to overcome Liverpool’s two-goal advantage?

Premier League leaders Liverpool travel to FC Porto looking to wrap up a place in the semi-finals of the Champions League for a second successive season. With a 2-0 advantage from the first leg at Anfield, the Reds are odds on to progress, with the Portuguese side facing a mammoth task ahead of them in what would be one of the most unlikely of Champions League comebacks.

Whilst this game may not hold the most interest for the casual observer, from a tactical and coaching perspective there will be a fascinating subtext to the game. This tactical analysis preview will demonstrate why.

Porto’s first-leg change of strategy

Following the first leg, both managers were quite candid about the tactical battle that unfolded on Merseyside, particularly around the surprise system that Sérgio Conceição utilised as an attempt to contain Liverpool.

With Porto usually deployed in a 4-4-2 system, Conceição opted with an unfamiliar 5-4-1 / 3-4-3, a surprise to everyone including Liverpool manager Jürgen Klopp.

“We didn’t know before the game, how could we, with Maxi and Corona together that side, not sure if they played it before, we didn’t see it before.

Conceição explained that the change was motivated by the strengths that Liverpool possess, and the change was more of an act of containment to limit the spaces that the Reds forward line of Sadio Mané, Mohamed Salah and Roberto Firmino could operate in.

“We prepared the game with a different strategy to that which we usually play. We needed to control the defensive space, as well as the players. Space was important to control.”

In reality though, Liverpool blew Porto away with two goals within the first 25 mins, with both goals highlighting weaknesses in the system chosen by the Porto coach.

The first goal came as Liverpool caught Porto in transition, before Os Dragões could assume their out-of-possession 5-4-1 shape. In their 3-4-3 in-possession shape, this left the three Porto centre-backs one-on-one against Liverpool’s feared forward line, with space left down the sides. This is exactly the kind of space that Conceição was wary of being exploited in setting up as he did.

With some clever movement from Mané he was able to gain separation from his marker Maxi Pereira. He dragged him into the wide areas to receive James Milner’s long pass before delivering a ball into the box leading to Naby Keïta’s deflected opener.

The second goal also demonstrated flaws in Porto’s system, as unsurprisingly they struggled to adapt to a shape they haven’t used once this season. As Moussa Marega tracks Salah, and Trent Alexander-Arnold positions himself extremely high up the pitch this effectively creates a 2v1. With Marega tracking Salah, there is an extremely large space created in front of the Porto back four as Henderson is granted time and space to pick a through-ball under no pressure whatsoever.

How will Porto set up?

What does this tell us about how Conceição will set up in the return leg? It suggests he probably will return to the tried and trusted 4-4-2 system which his team know well, particularly with the tie to salvage and playing at home.

The reas