This Thursday, Fluminense FC will dispute the first leg of the semi-finals of Copa Libertadores 2023 against another historical Brazilian side, SC Internacional. This game will be played at Fluminenses Maracanã home in Rio de Janeiro at 1:30 am Madrid time zone.
Fernando Dinizs Fluminense was the 2023 Carioca champion and is currently in fifth place of the Brazilian Championship with 10 points of difference in relation to Bruno Lages Botafogo (leaders).
They were first in the group stage and had solid performances in the knock-out stage, where they won Argentinos Juniors for 3-1 and Olimpia for 5-1 on aggregate. This season, Flu has a huge opportunity to become, for the first time in their history, the champion of South America.
On the other hand, Internacional, led by Eduardo Coudet, has the chance to save their season since they stand in the 13th spot in the league with the worst attack record (20 goals in 24 games played). Like Fluminense, the Colorado was the first in their group with 12 points and eliminated River Plate (after penalties) and Bolívar (by 3-0 on aggregate).
In this tactical analysis, well try to dissect what will be the initial line-ups, as well as the strengths and weaknesses of both teams. The current place of Internacional could suggest that they are less favourite to win this match, yet their international history has a huge influence in these matches.
Potential Line-ups
Lets start with the home team: Fluminense.
Firstly, for the goalkeeper, we foresee Fábio as the one occupying that position due to the number of games played this season, 49.
As centre-backs, we expect captain Nino to play alongside the other most experienced player of the squad, Filipe Melo. The 40-year-old defender is in his second season at Fluminense, and playing with him in the initial line-up, this side can expect a high level on and off the ball, especially in small details, which can be decisive in these types of competitions.
As for full-backs, Fluminense can finally count on the Brazilian legend Marcelo for left-back. After being suspended for an unfortunate play during a Libertadores match, the five-time UEFA Champions League winner for Real Madrid is available for this vital clash. Samuel Xavier is the most likely player to perform as the right-back.
The number 7, André, is expected to play as a pivot, not only because he is critical during build-up but also due to his regularity in the squad. Right near him, we thought that the Brazilian Lima was the most probable player to fit in that position. As an offensive midfielder, we expect to see the 33-year-old PH Ganso; however, since he was out a few games due to injury, Diniz might be forced to seek another alternative.
Finally, up front, we expect to see John Arias in the right flank since he seems to be recovered and Keno, as usual, exploring the left side. As a striker, Fluminense will count on Germán Cano, who already takes 33 goals in his account this season, which is an outstanding stat.
Fluminense (4-2-3-1): Fábio; Marcelo; Filipe Melo; Nino(c); Samuel; André; Lima; Ganso; Keno; Arias; Cano
On the side of Internacional, we foresee Sergio Rochet as the goalkeeper due to the number of games played in the knock-out stage of Libertadores.
To the position of centre-back, we expect to see the Argentinan Gabriel Mercado playing alongside Vitão, who is an option after Coudet stated that he has recovered. Renê and Fabricio Bustos will play as they are used to, left-back and right-back, respectively.
The choice for the defensive midfielder positions is far more difficult to guess due to the vast number of players available. Yet, since Johnny recovered in time to this semi-final, we count on him to play in the initial line-up. Right next to him, we wouldnt be surprised if Coudet opted for Charles Aránguiz. His experience and knowledge helped in the knock-out stage games, and this semi-final wouldnt be different.
Alan Patrick is the creative of this Brazilian side and is a fundamental piece in creating dangerous opportunities. We expect to see him playing as number 10 on Thursday.
Wanderson will most likely act as a left-winger and Mauricio as a right-midfielder/winger—two different players have different functions during the game. The number 9 is again hard to define and is between Luiz Adriano and Enner Valencia, who arrived this summer from Fenerbahçe. The decision will depend on Coudets tactics, but we believe Luiz Adriano is more likely to be chosen.
Internacional (4-2-3-1): Rochet; Renê; Mercado; Vitão; Bustos; Johnny; Aránguiz; Patrick(c); Wanderson; Mauricio; Adriano
Fluminenses strengths and weaknesses
During our analysis, we saw clearly that Fluminense likes to build up right from the back, and their general formation while attacking is the 4-2-3-1 and the 4-4-2 when defending. Yet they seem to act with one single pivot (André) with the next midfielder slightly ahead of him; in other words, although their positioning is not static, André explores more backtracked spaces on the pitch.
It is quite routine to see the 22-year-old Brazilian entering the middle of the backline to make a three-person build-up.
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