This Friday at 1:30 am Madrid, CA, Boca Juniors will play the first leg of the 2023 Copa Libertadores semi-final in their own historical stadium (La Bombonera) against the Brazilian side SE Palmeiras.
Boca boast the most Libertadores wins (six); however, the last they achieved was back in 2007. With an unsuccessful domestic league campaign, Jorge Almirón hopes to turn things around by reaching the final. In the Libertadores group stage, they won the group with 13 points with only two goals suffered, while in the knockout stage, they eliminated both the Uruguayans and Racing through penalties.
Conversely, Palmeiras were champions twice in a row back in 2020 and 2021 under the same coach, Abel Ferreira. They are currently placed in the second spot in the Brazilian Championship with a seven-point gap to the leaders, Botafogo, led by Bruno Lage. With 14 games left and with the dream of the Libertadores alive, Abels Palmeiras still have a chance of saving their season.
In this seasons Libertadores, Palmeiras also achieved first place in their group, yet with one bonus, they were the team that won the most points overall (15). In the knockout stage, they were flawless by eliminating Atlético Mineiro and Deportivo Pereira with no goals conceded.
In this tactical analysis, well try to understand both the way of play and where these two teams can hurt each other, bearing in mind their own strengths and frailties.
Potential line-ups
Initially, Boca will undoubtedly count on the ex-Manchester United Sergio Romero for the goalkeeper position, as he has been the first choice in this 2023 season.
To understand the possibilities of players more expected to play as centrebacks, its a must to know what are Almiróns general tactics, specifically his game model. Even though, as we are going to see further, Boca is used to playing in a 4-3-3, they can surprise with a backline of five, as he did in the quarter-finals against Racing.
Due to Palmeiras offensive football, we wouldnt be surprised if the Xeneizes presented themselves in a 5-4-1. With that said, we foresee the backline to be constituted by the youngster Nicolás Valentini, the captain Marcos Rojo, and Nicolás Figal.
As for full-backs, we expect to see the Colombian Frank Fabra covering the left flank due to what he can give to his team both offensively and defensively. By the right, we think that both Luis Advíncula and Marcelo Weigandt are the most prominent candidates; however, due to the verticality of Palmeiras, Jorge Almirón can opt for Marcelo since he is more defensive than Luis.
Ezequiel Fernández and Pol Fernández would be the two central midfielders as usual in Boca Juniors since Alan Varelas departure to FC Porto. The promising Valentín Barco and Cristian Medina are expected to play by the left and right wing, respectively.
Finally, El Matador , Edinson Cavani, will most certainly play as a solo centre-forward. Boca can really take advantage of his experience and technical qualities, especially his shooting and header.
Boca Juniors (5-4-1): Romero; Fabra; Valentín; Rojo(c); Figal; Weigandt; Barco; Pol; E. Fernández; Medina; Cavani
Conversely, Palmeiras will surely play with Weverton da Silva between the posts, as he has been Abels first choice since he took charge.
Captain Gustavo Gómez also has been a firm choice to lead the backline, and we expect him to play in the initial line-up. Our most considerable doubt goes to the player that will play alongside him, where there are two strong candidates: Luan and Murilo. These two played almost the same amount of minutes during the season, but if we had to guess, maybe Murilo would be Abels choice not only because he played their last game but also because of his ability to find teammates between the lines.
We also foresee Joaquín Piquerez and Marcos Rocha being the chosen full-backs, by the left and right, respectively.
Zé Rafael will most likely act as a pivot due to his characteristics to coordinate and organise the game from the back. The option to play ahead of him should lay on the 22-year-old Gabriel Menino, one of the most constant options due to his outstanding qualities. We think that the most probable option to play as number 10 is Raphael Veiga, who already had 28 direct goal contributions this season.
As wingers, we think that the technician Artur will play by the left, which is not his most desirable side, and Mayke by the right, a right-back who can play ahead due to his physic and verticality.
For the centre-forward position, there are two leading candidates: Rony and Endrick, who will depart for Real Madrid next summer. Yet we think that Rony will be the first choice due to his experience and positive impact on his team during offensive and defensive moments.
Palmeiras (4-2-3-1): Weverton; Piquerez; Murilo; Gómez; Marcos; Rafael; Menino; Veiga; Mayke; Artur; Rony
Where the home team can threaten and their weaknesses
As shown above, Boca usually play in a classic 4-3-3, in a 4-1-2-3 with a single pivot and two more advanced midfielders, normally Medina and Pol Fernández. However, as we mentioned, a system with three centrebacks can take place, and as it goes, well try to adapt our analysis to this Bocas unusual formation.
There are interesting combinations between these two, especially during the build-up process. Typically, the ball-side midfielder, in other words, the midfielder from the flank where the ball carrier is located, tends to approximate in order to give his team numeric superiority. This movement often attracts the opponent, and the other side midfielder takes advantage of it by staying deep, seeking the space on his back.
