Copa America 2024 Final: The tactical keys to Argentina vs Colombia – tactical preview

Argentina have been one of the favourites for Copa América 2024 glory from the outset of this year’s tournament, so it comes as no surprise that we see them in the final.

Their opponents, Colombia, on the other hand, entered the competition with far less expectation behind them that they’d reach this point, with their quality performances coming as a little bit more of a surprise, but with their place in the final just as deserved as Argentina’s.

These two sides have performed to a high level throughout the tournament, with both featuring in a counterpressing analysis piece we produced at the end of the group stage, which focused on the competition’s top performers. Their levels in counterpressing or in any other aspect of their respective games havent dropped at all during the knockout phase, hence their inclusion in this year’s continental showcase.

This tactical analysis piece in the form of a tactical match preview provides analysis of critical aspects of both teams’ respective tactics and where either side can make gains from a tactical perspective in the Copa América 2024 Final.

Predicted lineups

Lionel Scaloni’s world champions have primarily lined up in a 4-4-2 shape during Copa América, with Emiliano Martínez between the sticks — La Albiceleste’s only ever-present player throughout this tournament with no outfielder playing every minute or even starting every game.

Nahuel Molina has mainly played at right-back and is likely to remain in that position for the final alongside Cristian Romero at right centre-back and Lisandro Martínez at left centre-back. Meanwhile, Nicolas Tagliafico has been Argentina’s main left-back throughout the competition.

Rodrigo de Paul (right) and Enzo Fernández (left) are the likely starters in central midfield, with Ángel Di María (right) and Alexis Mac Allister (left) playing on the wings.

Lionel Messi will start up front alongside either Júlian Álvarez of Manchester City or Lautaro Martínez of Inter — with the former scoring a crucial goal in La Albiceleste’s semi-final win over Canada and the former remaining the competition’s top goalscorer. However, all of his goals came in the group stage.

Given his semi-final performance, we’ll give Álvarez the nod, but Scaloni could, realistically, go either way on that call.

In possession, they’re more likely to appear in a 4-3-3 with lots of central movement and rotations between Messi and the midfield trio of Mac Allister, De Paul and Fernández, as we’ll discuss in greater detail later.

As for Néstor Lorenzo’s side, Colombia have primarily lined up in a 4-3-1-2 shape during Copa América with both goalkeeper Camilo Vargas and right centre-back Davinson Sánchez featuring for every minute.

In addition, James Rodríguez (attacking midfield), Richard Ríos (central midfield), Jhon Arias (right central midfield) and Luis Díaz (left forward) have started every game and will likely remain in the starting XI for the final.

Right-back Daniel Muñoz has also started every Copa América game for Colombia up to this point. However, after his semi-final red card, he will be suspended for the final, meaning Santiago Arias is likely to play at right-back instead.

Alongside Sánchez at centre-back, we’ll likely see Carlos Cuesta on the left, while Johan Mojica has been the primary starter at left-back throughout the tournament.

Jefferson Lerma will probably start at left central midfield, completing the diamond quartet in the middle of the park, as Jhon Córdoba likely partners Díaz up front, completing Los Cafeteros’ starting XI.

Transitions

While Colombia found themselves defending deep and counterattacking a lot in the semi-final, they played the entire second half of that game with 10 men due to Muñoz’s sending off in first-half stoppage time.

For the majority of the tournament, Colombia have been quite possession-dominant, retaining 49% of the ball in their group stage draw with Brazil, for instance, and keeping an average of 54.4% over the course of the tournament — fifth-highest.

Argentina, similarly, have been very ball-dominant as you’d expect, with an average of 60.4% possession thus far during the tournament, trailing only Brazil, who were knocked out by Uruguay on penalties in the quarter-final.

For both Argentina and Colombia, as is typical with ball-dominant teams, transitional defence has been a staple of their tactics throughout this tournament, with both sides counterpressing aggressively both as a form of defence in that it has protected their weakened backline from direct attacks on the counter but also as a form of attack, as high regains in transition can allow them to hit the opposition’s backline when not so settled via a quick counter of their own.

At this point in the tournament, Colombia has completed 82 counterpressing recoveries, 42 high regains, and 15 dangerous recoveries, averaging 16.4 counterpressing recoveries, 8.4 high regains, and 3.0 dangerous recoveries per match.

On the other side, Argentina have completed a total of 71 counterpressing recoveries, 39 high regains, and 22 dangerous recoveries in Copa América 2024 to date, with those stats averaging out to 14.2 counterpressing recoveries, 7.8 high regains and 4.4 dangerous recoveries per match.

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