Within the last years, the rivalry between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich became the most important one in Germany since these two were clearly the two best sides in the Bundesliga. Furthermore, in the season 2012/13, these two teams met in the final of the UEFA Champions League and it was for the first time in the history of Europes most important competition a final with two German sides. Also, within the last decade, these two teams were the ones who dominated the Bundesliga. 2008/09 was the last season in which the champions after the 34th weren’t Borussia Dortmund or Bayern Munich as back then Wolfsburg won. Since then, Bayern won it eight times and Dortmund twice.
However, in this season, there are with RB Leipzig, Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen three other teams who are extremely strong and we have an open and interesting race for the title.
In this tactical analysis in the form of a preview, we will look at the two games of each Bayern and BVB since the restart of the Bundesliga and with the aid of this, we will speculate how the direct clash between them on the 28th matchday could look like.
Their line-ups
Hansi Flick went in the last two games with a 4-2-3-1 formation and used in both matches the same back four in front of Manuel Neuer which consisted of Alphonso Davies, David Alaba, Jérôme Boateng and Benjamin Pavard. The double-pivot consisted in the first game after the restart against Union Berlin out of Joshua Kimmich and Thiago while in the last match against Eintracht Frankfurt Leon Goretzka was the partner of Kimmich. Also, Robert Lewandowski was logically in both matches the single striker while the three offensive ones were against Union Thomas Müller, Serge Gnabry and Goreztka while in the game versus Adi Hütter’s side Müller was supported by Kingsley Coman and Ivan Perišić.
While Thiago was out in the last match against Frankfurt due to a little injury and it is yet not sure if he can play against BVB, it seems like Flick wanted to rotate a bit in the last game to give Gnabry a break and the wingers Coman and Perišić a chance to prove their qualities. Considering this, it is hard to say who the partner of Kimmich in front of the back four (which will surely stay the same unless someone gets injured as Flick noted a few days ago) will be and which two men will support Müller behind Lewandowski. Of course, Thiago will play if he is fit, but we will have to wait and see.
On the other side, Lucien Favre lined up his team in the two games since the restart in the 3-4-3 and 3-4-2-1 respectively which they primarily use since the end of November 2019. In these two games, the starting XI was exactly the same with Roman Bürki in goal and the back three was made of Manuel Akanji, Mats Hummels and Łukasz Piszczek. Mahmoud Dahoud and Thomas Delaney played in the central midfield (Axel Witsel is injured and Emre Can missed the game against Schalke due to muscular problems and got subbed on against Wolfsburg in the last game as Hummels got injured). The wing-backs were Raphaël Guerreiro and Achraf Hakimi. Julian Brandt and Thorgan Hazard supported upfront the Norwegian striker Erling Haaland.
Jadon Sancho (who is linked with Manchester United and several other big clubs in Europe) had also muscular problems before the restart and therefore just got subbed on in the last two games, but both times performed well. Due to that, it will be hard for Favre to decide if he uses the same front three or adds Sancho. Also, Witsel and Can both could probably be fit again while Hummels might be out for the game against Bayern due to his injury. In the shot below we can see how the two teams might start the game as they will surely stick with their respective formations, but the coaches have in some positions several options.
Dortmund’s 3-4-3 during the first stages of the build-up
One of the most interesting questions ahead of this game is who will dominate the match and which players are able to take control of the game since basically both teams are usually the favourites and dominate the matches with possession. While Dortmund had against Wolfsburg 56% possession and played 251 more successful passes than the opposition (against Schalke 57% and 202 more successful passes), the team of Flick were even more dominant and had in moth matches after the restart at least 65% of possession plus 331 and 328 more successful passes than Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt respectively. Here you need to note that Bayern had slightly weaker opponents, but still, we can see that both dominated their matches and also won all of them.
Now, we will focus on Dortmund’s tactics and positionings during the build-up. They stay in their 3-4-3 formation and the back-three is responsible for the circulation of the ball. The two central midfielders stay narrow and quite deep while the wing-backs hug the touchline to stretch the opposition. The two wingers have a lot of freedom and position themselves mainly in the half-spaces at this stage. All these aspects can be seen in the shot below.
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