As the group stages of the 2023 FIFA Womens World Cup come to a close, there is still so much to be played for in the stages final round of fixtures. In group G, Sweden have all but confirmed their progression to the knockout phase by winning their opening two games and collecting a goal difference of +6. The second qualifying spot is up for grabs, though, with Italy, South Africa, and Argentina all fighting to get through.
Amongst the final round of group stage fixtures, we have South Africa vs Italy — this tactical analysis will provide a tactical preview of what we could see in this tie, with an analysis of key tactics involved. The focus will be placed on South Africas attacking tactics and how they could exploit their opponents defensive weak spots. Italys previous game saw them come on the receiving end of a 5-0 thrashing at the hands of Sweden, while South Africa battled out a 2-2 draw with Argentina. Both of the two latter sides picked up their first point of the tournament in that tie, having lost their opening games, but sit two points behind a hurt Italy squad.
Team news
South Africa have been rocking a classic 4-4-2 so far in the group stage, which is expected to remain unchanged. Manager Desiree Ellis has not been afraid to make a few changes in terms of personnel thus far, rotating options at positions such as left-back, central midfield, and centre-forward. She will have to maintain that attitude as well, as Kholosa Biyana picked up a second yellow card in as many games against Argentina, meaning she is suspended for the tie against Italy.
While they may miss her energetic presence in the engine room, Linda Motlhalo has already chalked up some minutes in the same position in the group stages, so she could be set to start against Italy – she also brings an attacking presence to central midfield; which could be just what Ellis side need to put the pressure on Italy from early doors. It is not expected that Ellis will want to make too many changes in one area, so Refiloe Jane will likely keep her starting position in midfield.
Italys 4-2-3-1 is unlikely to change unless manager Milena Bertolini fancies wholesale changes to kickstart her squads reaction. That isnt likely, though – their defeat against Sweden, while shocking, was not the result of a lack of possession or build-up opportunities, so Bertolini is expected to keep faith in the current formation. We may see a personnel change in the defensive midfield pairing, as Manuela Giugliano and Arianna Caruso didnt find that strong defensive foundation between them against Sweden – something they will need to rectify to combat RSAs attack this time.
How RSA can exploit Italys defensive woes
Conceding five goals is rare – even more so at an elite international tournament. Italy, who crashed out at the quarter-finals in 2019, will likely be feeling somewhat vulnerable after being demolished by Sweden, and South Africa have a chance to capitalise. It was how quickly Italy crumbled off the ball that was most shocking: they looked shellshocked, only inviting more Swedish pressure on. If South Africa can tap into their attacking aggression & ability while targeting specific Italian defensive weaknesses, they could be on course for a monumental result.
Looking first at Swedens third goal against Italy, as it holds elements that we might see in South Africas attacking play, it will be interesting to see if RSA can exploit the same issues or if Italy can make a quick fix to make themselves harder to penetrate from wide areas. The move begins with Sweden already having a high attacking presence – something we do see from time to time in South Africas tactics, but more important is the overloading on the right flank.
Three players close together on the flank was more than effective in breaking down Italys midfield and defensive units. While Sweden deserve credit for simply fantastic football, they were helped by some lacklustre defending from Italy. In the image above, the pressure on the ball did not come soon enough, and the Sweden player at the point of the marked triangle wasnt even marked goal-side, allowing her to be much more dangerous.
