EFL Championship 2020/21: Watford vs Luton Town

After over 14 long years, the Bed-Herts derby is finally back as Watford host Luton Town in the EFL Championship. The bitter rivals have been on very different journeys since their last meeting, a 1-1 draw in April 2006. Watford have had two spells in the Premier League, with their recent five-year stay in the top-flight only ending in July this year. The Hornets also reached the FA Cup final in 2019. But it’s been a completely different story for Luton.

The season after their last meeting, the Hatters entered administration and suffered relegation to League One. This preceded a disastrous turn of events for the Bedfordshire club. In the following campaign, Luton were relegated again after starting the campaign on -30 points, following a variety of financial irregularities. But after five years in the non-league wilderness, the Hatters won promotion to League Two in 2014. Fast forward to 2018, and they were celebrating to promotion to League One under current manager Nathan Jones, who then saw his team win the third tier at the first time of asking. Jones returned to Kenilworth Road towards the end of last term after a wretched spell at Stoke, inspiring his troops to a post-lockdown great escape as they stayed up against the odds.

And that’s how we got here, the first Bed-Herts derby since 2006: albeit unfortunately without fans. This tactical analysis will take a look at the tactics both teams have used this season, as we preview the big occasion.

Predicted line-ups

Watford could make one change from the side that drew 0-0 at Sheffield Wednesday. Stipe Perica looked threatening when he came off the bench, so he could start in place of Glenn Murray. He’d be partnering Joao Pedro upfront. Elsewhere, Ben Foster is the Hornets’ undisputed number one goalkeeper. Craig Cathcart, Christian Kabasele and Ben Wilmot have been part of a back three that is yet to concede in the league this season, so they’re unlikely to be dropped alongside. Ken Sema and Jeremy Ngakia are also included in that bracket as wing-backs. Former Chelsea man Nathaniel Chalobah is expected to play in a midfield three between Tom Cleverley and Domingos Quina

Luton Town could only make one change from their 2-1 victory over Derby County. James Bree is a doubt for the clash after picking up a knee injury. Peter Kioso started at right-back in the cup defeat to Manchester United, so we expect him to deputise. Sonny Bradley and Matty Pearson are likely to play in central defence, with Rhys Norrington-Davies at left-back. They’ll play in front of goalkeeper Simon Sluga. Glen Rea, Pelle Ruddock Mpanzu and Luke Berry should start in central midfield. Harry Cornick and Elliot Lee are likely to play out wide, supporting lone striker James Collins.

Luton’s Defensive Shape

Luton have won both of their opening league games, and they saw less of the ball in both of those matches. In their 1-0 win over Barnsley, Luton had 49.3% of possession. Following that, they managed to beat Derby despite enjoying just 34% of the ball. Since Nathan Jones came in, he’s made them much more difficult to break down. Up to lockdown, when Graeme Jones was in charge of the Hatters, they conceded an average of 1.92 goals per game. That figure went down to 1.22 under Nathan Jones, who took charge of their last nine fixtures. Luton had the seventh-best record in the league post lockdown. The work Nathan Jones has done with their defensive structure has been immense, and their solidity was on show in their win over Derby.