Premier League 2023/24: Unravelling the drama of an intense title race through numbers – data analysis

“I swear you’ll never see anything like this ever again”. The words of Martin Tyler as he watched in disbelief as Sergio Agüero scored in Fergie time to clinch Manchester City’s EPL title back in 2012. This isn’t the only closely contested title race that has cemented England’s top tier to be one of the most exciting divisions in the world.

City and Liverpool have taken over in recent seasons from the fierce Manchester United and Arsenal rivalry from the late 90s and early noughties. Leicester had a fairytale ending in 2016, and who can forget Kevin Keegan’s “I will love it” rant as his Newcastle side eventually succumbed to United in the battle for the top spot in 1996.

Each title race has a uniqueness to it, and this season is proving to be no different as, at the time of writing, only five points separate Liverpool at the top from fourth-placed Aston Villa. The red half of Merseyside will undoubtedly be looking to give Jürgen Klopp a memorable send-off; City are vying to be the first club to win four consecutive Premier League titles. Arsenal are hoping for a first title since the 2004 Invincibles and Villa are currently surprise contenders under Unai Emery.

In this data analysis, we will assess all four contenders’ seasons to date as well as provide an analysis of their current form to see how this stacks up against previous champions. We will also use our data and statistics assess the nature of when these four sides are scoring goals, as well as identify which players are likely to prove key and how such players fit into their respective sides tactics.

Lucky Villa?

Based on recent seasons, it is no surprise to see City, Liverpool, and Arsenal – who occupied pole position for 248 days to no avail last season – are currently vying for the top spot this campaign. However, Villa are certainly the surprise package to date but is it by fluke?

The scatter plot assesses the performance of clubs in the Premier League this season, prior to midweek fixtures, by means of expected goal difference and actual goal difference. Teams situated in the top left quadrant can be considered overachieving, while those in the bottom right underachieving. The teams positioned in the top right and bottom left quadrants are performing as expected.

A look at the above shows that all the top four sides are performing as expected. However, Liverpool and Villa are arguably overachieving the most out of those four sides, considering Klopp’s side’s actual goal difference is 7.3 better than expected. Similarly, Emery’s side’s goal difference is 5.6, which is better than expected. While this could be a product of some exceptional displays from these two teams, you can’t rule out a bit of luck.

Wh