Discover NCAA D1 men’s soccer’s most successful style of play – data analysis

In our February magazine article entitled, “College Soccer: NCAA D1 game model clustering and KPIs derived by machine learning,” we investigated the questions, “How does our game model relate to other programs? And who with a similar game model is pulling it off better than us?”

By reverse-engineering KPIs, we determined which metrics were most important for programs within four general styles of play to track.

In this article, we’re after a different question. If the previous article asked “who plays like us, but better,” this article asks, “which style best suits college soccer?”

We’re headed in a few directions to answer that question.

First, we do want to visualise performances through a team context, distinguishing each cluster. Second, we’re adding RPI to the mix, which is an NCAA means of weighing results to better assess the strength of a team. We’ll then look at cluster-generated data before finishing with an investigation of NCAA tournament results.

Visualising cluster performances through team results

If you havent read the NCAA D1 mens soccer data analysis we published in our February magazine, thats an important reference point. In that article, we used a clustering technique that weighed event data to break each D1 team into one of four clusters. Those groups represent similarities in playing style. Its not to say that the game models are exact, but it does point to a high degree of similarity in the way each team approaches the game.

To give a basic description before launching into this analysis, think of Cluster 1 as a Barcelona-type team. The playing style is highly identifiable and correlates with higher percentages of possession and an aggressive high press. In this article, they are represented with filled pink circles.

Cluster two is more synonymous with an adaptable style of play. From game to game, they may have more or less with the ball, press higher or slightly deeper and may rely on the counterattack more for some opponents and less for others. Think of the Real Madrid teams in recent years. They could enjoy 70% of possession against Cadiz and just as easily have 46% as they did against Liverpool in the 2022/23 UEFA Champions League final. They have clear principles of play, but they also show no fear of adapting to each opponent. In this analysis, Cluster 2 is featured in an unfilled pink ring.

Cluster three is a good fit with Atlético Madrid. Theres a reputation for less possession and a greater prioritisation of defensive solidity, but theyre also dangerous when they do get the ball. They use their defensive approach to optimise their attacks to create space to counterattack. Cluster 3 has been assigned an unfilled yellow ring.

Speaking of Cadiz, they make an exemplary model for Cluster 4. Think a very rigid defensive side that has a clear assignment. Theyre going to sit deeper, often in either a low block or a deep mid-block, while relying almost exclusively on counterattacks and set pieces for their goals. 1-0 is a fantastic result. Youll find them in this analysis with a filled yellow circle.

Lets start with a listing of each cluster to give a sense of representation across NCAA D1 mens soccer. The first cluster, our more possession-dominant and high-pressing teams, are the least representative. Theyre followed by the second and fourth clusters. That third group is the most common style of play, relying on defensive security and attacking transitions to execute their game model.

So, how did these teams perform in 2023?

Perhaps its not the biggest surprise to see a linear progression from the bright yellows, Cluster 4, in the bottom left to the bright pinks, Cluster 1, in the top right. Whats more interesting is how those two middle groups fare. Marshall, West Virginia and Bryant had exceptional seasons and can make an argument that their regular season performances were top five in the nation. Cluster 2 has some representation in the bottom left quadrant, showing poor results, but most of the group sits in the top right.