Evaluating Top 2023 NCAA D1 Men’s Soccer Sides – Data Analysis

The NCAA Mens Soccer 2023 season is in the books, with Clemson winning a second national championship in three years.

With a full season of data available on Wyscout, weve created a database with over 25,000 values, both directly from Wyscout as well as custom metrics, that offers a complete seasonal database for every Division I mens program.

You may recall our three-part series NCAA data analysis in July and August of 2023.

We used data to interpret styles of play, included a guide on implementing data analysis within an NCAA program and picked our preseason team to watch.

We followed that up with an article on Creighton University, giving an inside look at their use of data in route to a College Cup appearance.

This analysis is modelled after that initial post.

Using this massive database with complete season data for all 211 NCAA D1 teams, this analysis will examine performance metrics and each programs attacking and defensive tactics.

NCAA D1 Men’s Soccer Performance Based Statistics

Lets start with the performance-based statistics.

In this section, were solely concerned with goals, goals against and the expected values in each category.

We want to first compare xG and xGA to get a sense of each teams attacking and defensive performances across the season.

Starting with the expected goals rather than the ones that counted on the scoreboard may seem counterintuitive.

After all, the actual goals are the ones that determine the results of games.

Well start with the expected goals for and against because we want to assess the calibre of each teams chance creation and denial.

This takes away the advantages of a team with fantastic individual goal scores and gives a better idea of a teams performance when the players up top havent pulled their weight.

Expected data levels the playing field to give an idea of the quality of the chances created throughout the season, both for and against.

Looking at our first graph, which plots xG and xGA, the top performers will be at the top right, while the squads with low xG and a high xGA are at the bottom left.

We immediately see the incredibly balanced and convincing seasons enjoyed by Duke, Akron, Marshall, Portland and Clemson.

They represent the top combination of goal creation and defensive stoutness.

Bryant had a remarkable season defensively, as did Missouri State, New Hampshire and Lafayette, representing the mid-majors proudly.

Wake Forest and Indiana also enjoyed strong defensive seasons, while UCLA and Lipscomb were a bit more susceptible defensively but enjoyed a prolific attacking output.

Turning to the goals and xG graph, we get a sense of which tea