Mourinho limiting Spurs and underperforming Brighton – Premier League data analysis

After Liverpool dominated last season, this Premier League season has brought us suspense after many surprising results. Just by looking at the table we can see that the difference between 1st and 10th place is only 7 points which makes us look forward to the denouement in the second part of the season. This data analysis will show us which teams overperformed and which teams underperformed. Through analysis, we will also evaluate teams style of play based on data.

Performance and expected goals model

The first graph we will analyze consists of created metrics called defensive and offensive performance. Both metrics are in percentages and they represent the team variance between xG and goals. 

It is not surprising to see Tottenham as the biggest outperformer in the league. Mourinhos tactics and their individual player quality, especially of the Son-Kane duo has led to their position on the table. However, it is worrying, aside from results, to see such a quality squad looking to score early and defend for the rest of the match. That tactic has backfired a few times this season against teams they should beat, but those matches ended as draws with Tottenham conceding late goals after defending for the better part of the game. The biggest offensive overperformer is Southampton. It could be connected to three free-kicks scored by James Ward-Prowse and a few surprising finishes from Danny Ings. They are really working hard for their luck because they are overperforming in defence as well with heroic defending by Jannik Vestergaard, Jan Bednarek and Alex McCarthy. Manchester United, Liverpool and Leicester are the other three teams that are overperforming on offensive metrics. The biggest underperformer is of course Brighton. There has been a lot of talk lately about Brightons underperforming season  they defend well and attack well, but low-quality finishing and bad goalkeeping have led to this situation. Other teams that have underperformed largely in the attack are last placed Sheffield United, Burnley and Fulham.

The next graph will show us xG values to see the quality of the team based on the quality of chances created and allowed.