Undeniable To Undesirable: Liverpool’s woeful record in big games explored – data analysis

Liverpool manager Jürgen Klopp shocked the footballing world earlier this year when he revealed his intention to leave the club at the end of the 2023/24 season. The summer of 2023 marked a new era for the Reds with a big overhaul within the squad, especially in midfield. Many thought that they’d fail to gel quickly enough to mount a title bid, but they’ve proven many wrong, currently sitting joint-top of the Premier League table with Arsenal. Even with Liverpool winning 22 of their 33 games so far, losing just three times, there have been some apparent chinks in the armour; questions raised about certain parts of their game.

One area that has drawn a lot of attention lately is their failure to understand games against the teams labelled ‘the big six’—Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United, and Tottenham Hotspur. This data analysis will examine just how and why Liverpool struggle to collect points against these clubs, with various statistics highlighting some areas that will provide some insight.

What the numbers tell us

Liverpool still have to play Spurs again in the Premier League run-in, this time at Anfield, but in the nine fixtures against the ‘big six’ in league competition this season, Liverpool have done themselves no favours. In fact, in nine games against the big six in EPL competition this season, they have just one win, which came at home to Chelsea.

Klopp’s Liverpool have been known to dominate the ball over the years, and this season has been no exception. In the league, they average 60.85% possession, one of the highest rates in the Premier League. However, in many of the games in question within this topic, they struggle to register the same numbers.

Notable absences of possession domination in games include the 1-1 draw at Chelsea, the 1-1 draw at Manchester City, and *that* defeat away at Tottenham Hotspur back in September – the Reds registered less than 45% possession by some margin in all three fixtures. It’s worth noting that all three of those games were away, which will become a theme in this data analysis.