Effect of European competitions on Premier League teams outside the ‘Big Six’ – data analysis

As we move towards the end of the season, teams are battling it out to clinch survival and European football for next season. Many clubs have ambitions of reaching a European competition, with this being the sole objective for many of the clubs in the Premier League. With England’s top-flight these spots are usually held by the ‘Big Six’ of Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester United, Manchester City, Tottenham and Arsenal. These clubs frequently participate in European competitions with many of them reaching the later rounds in their respective competitions.

Aside from these powerhouses of English football, this article will explore whether European football has a positive influence on a Premier League team to become a successful team and consistent top-flight team. Using data analysis we will look at the current qualification for European competition in English football, the history of teams outside the ‘Big Six’ within the competitions and the financial side of the tournaments while touching upon recruitment, squad depth and the future of the Premier League.

Qualification in English Football

In England, there are a maximum of seven qualification places allocated for English teams. There are multiple circumstances in which the method to ‘get into Europe’ can change depending on the results of the season of qualification. To simplify, we will just focus on qualification into the 2022-23 European competitions.

With Liverpool winning the EFL Cup this season and with the FA Cup final being a battle between Chelsea and Liverpool, all the European places will be given to teams based on the final Premier League standings. Therefore, the top four teams will qualify for the UEFA Champions League. 5th and 6th will qualify for the Europa League because the FA Cup winner will finish within the top five giving the spot to 6th place. 7th place will get into the play-off round of the Europa Conference League because the EFL Cup winners (Liverpool) will be finishing in the top four which moves the Europa Conference spot to the next highest-ranked position in the Premier League.

Going the distance

European football has been a competition that only a handful of teams have ever reached in England, with it being a huge achievement for any domestic team. However, with it being a competition between the best teams in Europe, it is always going to be difficult to go far in the competition and to reach the later rounds. To find out just how hard it is, we have taken all the teams outside the ‘Big Six’ who have entered the Europa League, with this being the only competition outside ’Big Six’ teams have achieved in Europe (excluding the year of Leicester City’s extraordinary title-winning season, and Everton clinching 4th place in the 04/05 season), and then looked at which round each team has got knocked out in.

As you can see no team outside the ‘Big Six’ have ever won the Europa League. These statistics give a clear indication of the immense difficulty to win a European competition. The graph above shows that the majority of teams (32%) get knocked out before the group stage, never getting a chance for the big prize money.