Striker struggles: taking Brighton to another level with a brand new centre-forward

Brighton & Hove Albion can finally comfortably state that they will be staying in the Premier League for another season. With nine matches left to play, they have a safety net of six points over Fulham in 18^th, and a game in hand too. Their performances have improved significantly since Chris Hughton was in charge and even last season under Graham Potter, but their points total less so.

Brighton’s season has been one of misfortune – starting the season off with an awfully out-of-form keeper in Mat Ryan, and not getting much luck at the other end of the pitch either. Potter’s playing style deserves more points than it has, and some blame must be placed upon the forward line. Neal Maupay scoring 8 in 27 appearances has not been good enough, but in this analysis, we will be utilising data insights to find a better option upfront.

This data analysis will use statistics to find a ready-made centre-forward for Potter’s Brighton, from division’s which the Seagulls have recently made purchases (Ekstraklasa, Swiss Super League, Eredivisie, Belgian Pro League, Championship, and Eliteserien). Our dataset consists of players who have primarily played as a striker this season, are aged between 18-29 years old, and with at least 1000 minutes played in the league.

At the end of our analysis, we will highlight three options, two ‘ideal’ options and ‘one for the future’. All data used in this piece is correct as of 22/03/21.

Finishing ability

Firstly, we will look at our dataset’s clinical edge. Although Maupay has spent a fair portion of game time as a left-forward this term, operating as more of a second striker than a typical #9, his underperformance on expected goals has not been of the required standard. 8 goals from nearly 11 xG does not meet the level that Brighton are hoping to achieve with their young and ambitious squad. Let us rectify that.

Leading the way for both xG per 90 and goals per 90 is Kasper Junker of Bodø/Glimt in the Eliteserien. Junker led the line for an indomitable Bodø/Glimt side which won the league with a 19 point gap on second place, and the 27-year-old contributed an incredible 1.16 goals per 90 in the process with an underlying xG figure of 0.86.

Sitting atop of the Eredivisie scoring charts in 2020/21 is, somewhat inexplicably, Giorgos Giakoumakis of VVV-Venlo. Yes, that’s right, VVV-Venlo, who got thrashed by Ajax 13-0 earlier on this season. The 26-year-old Greek is leading the Dutch scoring charts at a rate of 0.94 goals per 90 with an underlying number of 0.72.