With Bulgaria rock bottom of their UEFA EURO 2024 qualification group, the decision was made to part ways with manager Mladen Krstajić in October. Ilian Iliev was appointed the boss, taking charge of his first pair of international games in November’s EURO qualifiers and overseeing two draws — that doesn’t sound very impressive. Still, when you consider that these two draws doubled Bulgaria’s points tally for the EURO qualification campaign, it does look like a positive start for Iliev.
The new Bulgaria boss earned his place in the national team dugout with almost two decades of work. He began his career with Cherno More Varna in 2004, where he’d remain for nearly two years before taking on his next challenge with Beroe Stara Zagora in 2006. After less than a year, he then became Dimitar Penev’s assistant with the Bulgarian national team — a role he’d again hold for almost a year before returning to the Beroe Stara Zagora hot seat.
This began a four-year stint in charge of The Greens, which would see Iliev lead them to their first-ever Bulgarian Cup — the club’s first silverware since winning the league in 1985/86. Then, after some shorter tenures in charge of Levski Sofia, GD Interclube, Lokomotiv Plovdiv, FK Altay and Vereya, he’d return to where it all started — Cherno More Varna — in December 2017.
Having just completed his sixth full year as manager and in the midst of his sixth full season back in The Sailors’ dugout, Iliev’s side currently sit second on the table and stand a chance of winning what would be an unprecedented league title — what a sendoff that would be for their 55-year-old head coach seemingly set to depart the club at the end of the season to focus fully on the big national team job ahead of him!
This tactical analysis piece will aim to provide some insight into what aspects of Iliev’s tactics and game plan have been so effective in 2023/24. Furthermore, we’ll provide some analysis of his six-and-a-bit-year tenure in the Cherno More Varna dugout to put into some perspective the impressive job he’s performed over recent seasons to warrant the national team interest he’s garnered.
So, let’s get into it!
Iliev’s Cherno More Varna achievements
In our first section, we’ll start things off by looking at Iliev’s achievements with Cherno More Varna in recent years. While he hasn’t managed to add any more silverware to his managerial track record as of yet, he has sat at the helm of a team punching well above their weight, never more so than this season when they’re very much in the title fight as we enter the business end of the campaign.
Figure 1 displays Transfermarkt’s squad valuation for every Bulgarian top-flight team in the 2023/24 campaign. We can see Iliev’s side down in eighth place with a squad value of €7.29m at present, which pales in comparison to the might of Ludogorets Razgrad and CSKA Sofia — The Sailors’ two main title rivals this term — with a squad valuation of €38.3m and €18.68m, respectively, according to the transfer website.
This gives us some idea as to how impressive it is that The Sailors are, at the time of writing, tied level on points with Ludogorets and Sofia at the top of the Bulgarian First League.
This season isn’t an outlier in terms of Cherno More’s relative strength in Bulgaria’s First League; they haven’t been a powerhouse by any stretch of the imagination during Iliev’s tenure.
As figure 2 displays, they have fluctuated between seventh and ninth on the squad value table over the past seven seasons.
Despite that low of a ranking on the squad value table, Cherno More have consistently outperformed their relative strength, finishing seventh at a minimum in any of Iliev’s full seasons in charge; they finished top-five the last two seasons and look like doing so again, potentially earning a peak finish under Iliev, in 2023/24.
In terms of investment, Iliev hasn’t had much to work with by way of transfer funds during his time as Cherno More boss, spending nothing at all on transfer fees according to Transfermarkt. However, his club has made money on sales, earning a healthy transfer fee profit of €3.92m — and that’s only over the past four seasons.
Iliev deserves credit for navigating financial constraints and a division with plenty of teams in a more competitive position to ensure Cherno More have moved in the right direction and consistently punched above their weight.
With all this in mind, there’s no massive surprise he’s attracted the national team’s eye in a time of need. But what exactly is making Cherno More so effective in the league this season?
Full-backs
There are two main areas of Iliev’s Cherno More 4-2-3-1 we’d like to focus on for the remainder of this analysis piece, dissecting how those players are used and why they provide an ideal illustration of what’s going so right at Stadion Ticha this season, the first being the full-backs, namely Viktor Popov on the right and Tsvetomir Panov on the left.
Panov and Popov have been Cherno More’s main full-backs this term; their average positioning this season is highlighted in figure 4.
We can see Panov has positioned himself a little deeper while Popov has gotten further forward on his side of the pitch — this is common right from the beginning of Cherno More’s possession play. We see Panov remain deeper, giving the centre-backs and goalkeeper a shorter option. At the same time, Popov pushes higher, usually providing an option in the opposition’s half as he looks to provide width in the final third.
Iliev’s full-backs have been vital ball carriers for their team this term; their ball progression maps above highlight dribbles and progressive runs from the 2023/24 campaign.
Both men have been reliable dribblers and frequently used their ball-carrying ability to move the team upfield — again, though, Popov is more of a high-volume dribbler than Panov, once more related to his more advanced role in the team.
In terms of progressive passing and chance creation, this wide duo have once more been vital to Iliev’s approach. Again, we see a lot more activity from Popov in the business end of the pitch, while Panov is more active in deeper areas. Panov’s role is to help his team advance into the opposition’s half and final third, whereas Popov’s role is more akin to a creator and we’ll typically already find him in the final third.
Lastly, in relation to Iliev’s dynamic full-back duo, figure 7 displays the two players’ respective high regains maps from the 2023/24 campaign. The key thing to note here is how many counterpressing recoveries are evident, particularly from Popov on the right.
Iliev’s Cherno More don’t press with incredibly high intensity, but their counterpressure is electric. They’ve been excellent at performing fundamentals, such as being first onto second balls and hounding opposition players immediately after they regain possession. This has led to their counterpressing success this term.
This is a valuable tool for the team in terms of their defence and keeping the opposition quiet at the back end of the pitch as well as going forward, as it helps The Sailors to generate valuable turnovers in dangerous parts of the pitch.
The full-backs and holding midfielders are key to Cherno More’s counterpressure; we see the fruits of the full-backs’ hard work in this phase of play above.
With Iliev’s side having scored the second-most goals (36) of any side in Bulgaria’s top flight this term, it’s evident to us that their offensive approach has been the main reason for their success. However, their 19 goals conceded (second-fewest in the league) isn’t too shabby either.
When it comes to the full-back pairing, they can claim some serious responsibility for their team’s performance at both ends of the pitch and at least one of the duo is actively engaged as key players in just about every phase of play. This is why it’s vital to understand Iliev’s full-backs in order to get a clear enough picture of his team’s performance.
Attacking midfielders
The other area of the pitch we want to spend some time focusing on is the attacking midfield department. Within his 4-2-3-1, we’re classifying the ‘10’ along with the wingers all together as ‘attacking midfielders’, in this case, and all three of these players within the starting XI are, of course, vital to their team’s chance creation.
We primarily find Le Havre academy product Mazire Soula in the ‘10’ position, though he’s also comfortable with playing out wide, particularly from the left.
As referenced, he’s been the central attacking midfielder on the team sheet this season, but even then, we often find Soula drifting out to the wings if there’s space to be exploited there. He’s given plenty of positional freedom in possession, in a sense, and this can often help his side generate overloads on the wings as he moves out wide to double the threat. Additionally, his movement makes him difficult for defenders to track and mark, unsure whether to follow him out wide or remain in their central position.
In terms of his dribbling, we see a lot more carrying from Soula in wide areas, where space is more likely to be afforded to him. In the centre of the pitch, where space is at a premium, it’s more common to find Soula linking up with quick passing, not taking too much time on the ball.
Figure 10 displays that Soula’s shot assist map from the 2023/24 campaign thus far. While we have some shot assists coming from central positions, the wings and half-spaces are where most of the action is happening. We see passes coming from a fairly wide variety of areas, indicative of the attacking midfielder’s positional freedom within Iliev’s offensive system.
Alex Fernandes has primarily played from the right for Iliev this term — his heatmap for the 2023/24 campaign is displayed in figure 11.
While he primarily occupies the wide channel, he will carry the ball inside where most of his chance creation comes from — the half-space — similar to Soula.
A highly reliable dribbler, his ball progression map in figure 12 highlights his carry locations, demonstrating his tendency to move inside with the ball at his feet from the wide channel.
Lastly, Edgar Pacheco has been Cherno More’s main left-winger this season; we see his heatmap in figure 13. It’s quite a similar sight to Fernandes’ heatmap in figure 11, only mirrored from right to left and with Pacheco spending a bit more time in a slightly narrower position, linking up and swapping positions with Soula at times.
Like Fernandes, Pacheco is a reliable dribbler who offers a lot of quality in the final third. Unlike his two attacking midfield partners, though, he tends to complete a lot of carries in central areas — again, partly a result of his frequent positional interchange with ‘10’ Soula.
We see a lot of individual freedom in how Iliev’s side plays in the final third. Players are empowered to take the ball and run at the opposition defence, while they also aren’t restricted so much to specific areas, with a good deal of freedom allocated for them to roam. This has been a successful strategy for Iliev with his team this season, so kudos to him for striking the right balance with his team.
Conclusion
To conclude this analysis piece, Ilian Iliev has undoubtedly earned his place as Bulgarian national team boss and has perhaps performed better than any other manager in Bulgaria’s top-flight this term.
This season, his team’s success has been built on individual freedom, a lack of major restriction in possession and those players rewarding the coach for entrusting them with this freedom.
However, Iliev is far more than just a one-season wonder; he’s been overachieving for over half a decade with Cherno More, and it would appear the Bulgarian national team have a safe pair of hands taking the reins.
