From Theory to Action: Tactical strategies for crafting high-value shots from open play

Two weeks ago, we put out an analysis on tactical principles for efficient penalty area entries.

Lets build on that.

In this weeks tactical theory article, well look at the passing sequences that position a team to attack the box. That moves beyond the entry, scaling our focus back to how to create attacking sequences that lead to high xG shots.

While xG is best used within a large sample size to determine whether a player gets into quality shooting positions or a team’s ability to create shots, this analysis uses xG per shot as a means of identifying and determining which shots to hone in on. Your average xG for the top five UEFA leagues is 0.13, so to be more deliberate with our approach, the only shots considered for this tactical analysis were those that registered a 0.3 xG or higher.

Once those shots were identified, we looked at the tactics leading up to the opportunity. And thats really our focus in this piece. Were researching attacking sequences that lead to clear-cut opportunities on goal. Well start with shots created through attacking transitions and then finish with a case against the low block, rounding out this analysis.

Attacking transition from mid-block

The first sequence well look at is attacking transitions from a mid-block. For starters, its probably the easiest to assess. The more quickly a team can advance the ball from Point A to Point B, the more likely they are to produce a high-quality goal-scoring opportunity.

Any deviation from point A to point B adds time to the attacking sequence. If the counterattack takes a lower tempo, the opposition has the opportunity to recover numbers behind the ball and strengthen key parts of the pitch, especially the central channel, to contest any delivery.

Quick progression is critical.

That comes in the form of the first attacker carrying the ball up the pitch as well as the supporting runners. The interaction between the attacking players is pivotal to the sequences success.

Lets look at an example from the EPL: Newcastle recovered the ball while in the mid-block and looked to counterattack against Aston Villa. We can see the first attacker immediately runs at the nearest defender. The second attacker is providing an overlapping run, meaning the two players have a 2v1 numeric superiority. Aston Villa must respond by delaying the attack as best they can and gradually shift a cover defender without sacrificing too much space centrally.

Looking at the far side of the pitch, the third man prepares his move into the box. Initially, he moves slightly wider to get on the blind side of his defender and tries to widen the gap between his mark and the nearest centre-back.

Aston Villa does reasonably well to recover along the backline and complicate Newcastles path forward. As Newcastle looks to attack the box, the first attacker slows his forward movement for a split second to impact the tempo of the right-backs recovery. Once he baits the defender into a moment of hesitation, he can spring the second attacker into the box.